***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.08.2021.-08.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 17.6 18.2 21.2 2.2 89.3 86.2 15.8 16.2 17.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 17.5 17.9 20.1 1.3 78.2 74.7 15.3 16.4 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 20.0 20.4 21.0 1.7 86.7 82.2 17.4 18.1 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 15.4 16.5 19.2 2.6 95.3 91.5 12.7 13.8 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 7 93 100 16.6 17.8 19.7 2.3 92.0 88.5 13.9 15.1 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 14.7 17.0 17.2 2.8 97.8 95.9 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 17.6 18.6 20.5 1.6 83.5 79.0 15.8 16.3 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 10.7 12.5 17.1 2.4 95.0 92.7 8.5 9.4 10.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 17.0 17.4 18.9 1.3 83.6 79.8 15.8 16.3 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 7 93 100 17.0 18.0 17.5 1.8 90.5 87.7 15.5 16.0 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 16.9 17.7 19.0 1.8 89.7 86.6 14.7 15.9 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 15.0 16.2 18.6 2.6 95.3 93.0 13.2 13.8 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 5 95 100 16.2 17.6 18.2 2.1 95.3 92.9 14.1 14.9 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 17.9 18.2 18.5 1.4 87.1 82.0 16.1 16.8 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 5 95 100 18.4 20.1 21.2 2.3 93.8 90.5 15.9 16.8 18.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 3 97 100 17.4 20.1 19.1 2.5 96.5 94.1 15.5 16.5 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 17.7 17.9 19.8 1.2 76.4 73.6 16.0 16.9 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 5 95 100 15.4 16.5 17.2 2.3 94.1 90.7 13.9 14.8 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 17.3 17.4 20.0 1.0 74.5 71.2 15.7 16.4 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 11.9 12.8 16.0 2.9 98.1 95.6 9.5 10.5 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 9 91 100 17.2 17.6 20.5 1.9 88.5 85.8 15.3 15.9 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 16.8 17.0 19.9 1.1 75.4 72.7 15.2 16.0 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 16.7 16.9 19.9 0.8 71.3 68.2 15.0 15.9 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 8 92 100 17.5 17.9 18.9 1.7 90.4 85.5 15.9 16.6 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 17.4 18.5 20.6 2.3 90.1 86.8 15.4 16.0 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 1 99 100 16.1 18.5 18.0 3.2 98.6 96.8 14.1 14.6 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 18.1 18.9 20.9 2.3 90.5 87.1 15.0 16.3 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 15.8 18.1 20.0 2.7 96.0 93.5 14.3 14.7 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 8 92 100 14.8 15.7 16.2 2.0 91.2 87.8 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 18.0 18.6 20.7 1.5 81.4 77.4 15.7 16.7 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------