***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.08.2016.-28.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 45.1 59.2 39.9 122.6 74.7 61.9 29.8 40.5 56.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 63.7 74.9 47.6 155.5 83.9 73.1 25.7 45.9 60.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 61.4 74.1 40.5 132.7 77.2 64.7 26.1 37.8 67.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 70.1 88.7 39.9 145.9 80.0 63.1 30.2 41.5 61.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 44.8 56.6 39.5 147.6 79.3 62.7 23.9 32.7 40.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 45.5 47.8 43.3 129.7 74.4 59.8 28.2 36.7 44.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 52.2 56.0 47.1 144.0 80.4 70.4 28.9 43.5 49.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 69.0 84.2 45.0 139.9 75.4 63.3 47.1 62.1 78.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 49.1 75.1 39.7 137.0 78.9 63.5 31.6 42.9 48.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 60.5 84.6 47.5 139.9 77.2 63.7 38.9 53.2 63.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 48.8 61.1 40.4 159.8 82.7 64.8 25.7 34.8 49.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 49.4 58.7 36.0 144.8 77.5 62.5 24.5 31.4 44.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 48.4 53.7 37.2 143.3 75.3 60.8 21.5 30.1 43.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 74.8 89.6 57.6 157.3 82.7 72.1 38.3 57.2 73.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 38.0 62.6 34.8 142.9 79.9 62.6 16.9 31.7 50.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 24.4 62.0 38.2 152.4 80.0 62.0 21.4 39.2 50.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 56.9 66.6 48.7 147.1 82.0 70.2 37.0 44.0 50.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 52.9 63.5 52.1 128.8 73.2 62.4 39.7 48.2 60.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 68.5 81.9 48.1 161.3 84.8 73.9 31.1 44.1 58.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 59.0 67.8 51.4 119.9 65.9 58.8 37.2 53.7 67.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 63.6 77.5 39.1 129.8 76.9 62.1 27.2 39.7 58.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 57.9 71.8 53.5 163.0 85.0 72.2 33.4 38.5 50.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 69.8 94.9 49.4 165.6 86.8 74.9 26.7 35.3 50.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 80.2 91.4 47.3 136.2 76.2 65.7 39.1 58.7 68.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 45.5 60.6 43.1 125.3 76.7 61.5 27.3 40.7 53.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 36.8 49.4 28.5 122.3 71.0 56.1 23.7 29.3 37.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 54.1 70.5 43.3 121.8 75.5 62.5 30.4 49.0 61.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 31.7 63.1 38.7 151.1 80.6 63.3 13.9 24.8 38.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 69.3 80.1 53.6 124.6 69.2 61.4 46.1 59.9 75.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 49.4 60.5 44.9 145.1 81.2 69.8 20.0 28.9 39.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------