***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.08.2016.-28.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 6.4 4.2 6.4 63.5 58.3 44.1 0.6 3.1 6.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 6.3 9.0 8.2 81.4 62.8 50.8 1.6 3.8 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 9.0 10.8 7.4 73.7 57.7 47.6 2.1 6.8 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 10.4 20.2 7.7 110.8 73.9 52.4 1.7 6.5 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.2 18.2 7.2 97.0 69.9 51.1 1.7 7.4 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.2 14.4 8.1 92.2 67.8 52.9 0.8 5.3 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.8 8.3 7.9 78.1 62.1 50.6 0.4 3.5 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 21.8 23.9 8.6 98.5 67.4 54.7 9.2 18.1 23.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 11.0 13.0 7.4 82.3 64.3 52.0 3.6 8.3 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.1 16.9 9.2 91.6 65.1 52.7 4.3 11.4 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.6 15.1 7.0 102.8 69.1 54.7 3.4 8.5 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.8 10.4 6.7 95.1 70.1 56.1 2.4 5.8 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.7 14.1 6.0 79.1 67.7 49.1 1.0 8.2 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.5 20.5 10.3 84.4 65.4 52.0 5.5 12.9 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 3.7 10.2 6.4 102.6 73.6 49.6 0.5 1.5 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.7 14.0 6.3 94.8 71.5 53.8 1.5 5.6 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.4 23.9 9.0 93.4 68.2 52.2 2.2 4.8 19.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.5 13.5 10.6 86.8 64.1 50.0 5.6 9.3 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 11.5 11.6 8.5 85.3 63.6 51.0 1.7 8.5 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 19.2 19.4 11.1 94.0 63.6 51.0 9.4 14.2 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 10.6 16.1 7.0 76.3 62.2 49.0 1.8 7.7 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.0 24.2 10.3 111.4 71.1 54.6 3.4 6.8 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 10.8 13.7 8.5 85.8 65.0 52.1 1.4 7.4 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.8 19.7 8.9 79.0 62.2 50.5 4.9 9.0 20.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 9.3 16.8 7.2 75.3 65.1 49.7 1.7 6.1 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.7 19.9 4.7 76.0 69.7 52.6 1.1 5.6 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 12.1 11.9 6.8 66.1 60.7 47.2 2.9 7.4 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.1 15.8 7.2 109.0 75.0 53.1 0.3 3.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 17.6 21.6 11.0 85.9 61.3 50.6 7.4 13.3 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 5.7 4.4 7.8 75.6 58.6 50.0 1.0 3.1 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------