***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.08.2016.-21.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.9 13.6 9.5 153.3 78.7 54.3 0.5 6.7 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.4 14.4 12.0 183.9 80.0 57.2 1.1 4.8 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.6 18.7 9.3 155.3 78.3 56.1 1.3 5.8 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 0.4 22.2 8.9 175.0 82.7 56.9 0.2 0.9 8.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 0.1 8.7 8.2 167.2 79.3 57.5 0.0 0.3 2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 0.5 18.8 8.9 141.3 79.7 52.3 0.0 1.2 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.9 22.3 12.3 179.7 82.3 57.3 0.8 4.1 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 1.7 27.2 8.1 139.1 78.5 51.0 0.9 4.0 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 0.1 13.4 8.7 150.0 79.7 57.5 0.0 0.2 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 0.5 18.2 9.3 141.6 78.4 54.4 0.0 1.2 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 2.8 11.1 8.2 198.5 82.2 56.2 0.0 0.7 2.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 0.3 11.2 7.4 175.7 81.3 54.6 0.0 0.6 4.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 0.0 9.1 8.7 193.4 82.4 54.4 0.0 0.0 1.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 10.7 18.9 12.4 150.6 76.2 58.3 1.0 7.6 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 2.4 9.5 6.9 157.3 82.9 54.3 0.0 0.7 3.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 0.1 7.1 8.7 206.8 82.2 52.7 0.0 0.3 1.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.8 12.9 13.3 187.4 80.5 57.5 1.4 5.2 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 5.0 10.6 10.5 121.9 74.4 56.5 0.3 3.0 7.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 1.8 15.7 11.3 171.2 78.9 57.0 1.6 3.6 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 3.0 10.8 8.7 93.5 67.8 50.4 0.8 6.3 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 0.9 13.7 8.7 144.3 78.1 57.7 0.1 1.9 4.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.0 15.3 14.1 181.8 80.0 59.3 0.7 4.7 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.4 18.1 10.1 146.7 77.1 55.5 2.2 6.4 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 7.4 16.7 10.4 138.7 75.3 59.6 0.6 4.1 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 0.5 11.2 9.4 140.3 78.0 53.2 0.2 1.1 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 0.0 8.9 5.6 147.0 80.7 52.2 0.0 0.0 1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.6 20.5 10.2 147.1 78.8 55.3 3.7 8.4 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 3.9 15.7 8.3 180.0 85.1 56.7 0.3 1.3 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 3.0 14.7 10.4 113.8 71.2 54.6 0.5 6.1 10.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 1.8 14.1 10.7 169.9 79.8 54.6 0.6 4.1 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------