***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.08.2016.-14.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 7.1 11.3 6.6 78.9 66.9 51.0 0.3 3.6 10.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.4 16.7 8.3 106.6 69.4 53.4 2.2 4.8 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 1.9 15.3 7.1 96.5 69.3 51.3 1.3 4.1 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.9 22.0 7.6 117.0 75.8 55.0 1.0 9.2 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.3 14.4 7.4 110.8 73.8 52.1 1.0 4.3 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.6 16.8 8.7 102.2 69.5 47.0 1.9 6.3 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.5 11.7 7.9 86.4 68.9 51.7 2.3 5.3 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 4.3 17.3 6.8 86.0 63.1 43.8 1.6 10.5 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 2.6 14.6 6.3 95.8 68.5 48.6 1.8 5.6 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.5 13.3 7.1 93.0 66.0 46.7 4.7 9.8 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.0 15.9 8.1 111.7 68.0 52.4 2.4 6.8 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.9 11.1 6.7 101.6 64.4 49.0 1.6 6.1 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.0 10.3 7.5 106.0 71.2 47.5 0.7 4.8 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.5 16.6 10.0 122.2 71.6 54.7 4.8 11.9 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 1.3 12.0 6.6 90.5 71.6 48.1 0.4 3.0 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 1.9 13.2 7.8 110.4 72.5 49.3 0.4 4.5 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.5 10.9 7.7 85.8 67.3 48.2 4.3 6.3 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 3.9 13.1 7.9 89.6 64.8 47.8 4.3 8.8 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 7.2 13.8 8.5 124.0 72.7 55.3 2.3 3.5 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 2.9 9.6 8.3 81.5 59.8 47.2 3.3 6.3 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 9.6 10.0 5.8 81.6 65.9 48.7 1.3 5.9 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 9.4 10.7 7.9 91.1 67.2 50.2 4.1 7.3 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 1.4 12.3 8.6 140.0 76.3 54.9 1.0 3.2 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.1 20.0 7.6 99.5 67.5 51.1 3.7 12.1 19.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.7 11.5 7.7 82.4 64.8 48.3 0.6 7.3 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 1.9 10.4 7.9 110.4 69.2 49.2 0.0 4.1 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.0 7.3 7.5 77.2 66.0 49.3 0.8 4.1 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 1.6 19.7 7.3 112.7 76.3 50.8 1.1 3.8 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 16.9 19.8 9.0 88.5 63.0 50.4 4.5 14.0 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.5 6.9 7.5 96.5 68.4 50.6 2.9 5.2 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------