***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.08.2016.-07.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 14.2 36.3 17.4 221.7 89.3 72.8 1.4 4.3 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 19.3 36.4 19.2 307.4 93.3 79.0 0.6 8.5 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 14.3 33.9 16.7 236.6 89.5 74.4 3.0 6.9 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 10.3 38.3 15.7 181.9 84.4 65.7 0.9 8.2 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 11.4 24.3 16.6 218.4 86.7 68.4 0.6 6.3 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 12.2 17.6 17.7 182.1 79.5 67.2 1.4 4.9 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 18.9 38.1 19.1 284.7 92.9 78.7 0.7 9.0 15.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 27.9 50.6 21.5 228.4 87.9 74.9 7.6 13.1 21.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 16.3 25.0 17.3 228.1 86.5 72.8 0.6 6.2 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 27.9 43.3 21.9 229.8 87.2 74.2 2.9 7.1 26.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 15.4 29.4 17.1 242.7 87.1 70.0 0.3 3.3 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 18.3 34.0 15.2 220.3 87.2 69.9 2.4 6.9 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 12.9 29.6 15.1 220.4 86.7 67.6 0.5 3.8 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 26.4 61.0 24.9 308.4 95.1 78.7 1.4 4.3 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 12.6 38.2 14.9 232.5 89.5 70.4 0.1 2.4 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 12.2 22.2 15.3 219.1 86.0 67.7 2.4 5.9 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 23.1 33.4 18.7 255.2 91.1 79.6 3.2 8.5 22.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 20.6 30.7 23.0 216.8 88.0 74.9 5.0 10.6 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 22.7 51.8 19.9 315.2 93.3 79.1 0.9 10.5 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 18.2 29.3 23.4 202.5 85.6 73.3 4.4 9.5 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 13.7 32.2 17.6 226.0 87.2 73.5 0.3 3.8 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 13.9 28.9 21.3 298.1 92.9 79.7 2.2 5.8 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 20.3 36.6 22.2 323.3 93.9 80.2 2.3 5.4 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 26.7 44.3 20.3 245.2 91.4 75.3 1.9 12.6 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 14.5 30.9 18.9 212.9 88.7 72.7 0.1 3.6 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 10.3 28.6 10.4 166.9 83.0 64.6 1.7 6.4 17.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 14.4 35.1 18.8 218.8 88.0 74.1 1.6 5.4 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 5.6 22.1 16.0 205.8 85.1 68.0 0.1 4.3 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 24.3 31.9 23.1 216.5 88.7 74.2 3.8 15.3 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 12.6 23.8 18.9 291.4 92.4 78.0 1.5 4.4 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------