***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.08.2016.-28.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 28.4 28.6 28.7 -0.7 39.2 40.3 28.2 29.7 30.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 27.9 27.9 28.6 -1.0 33.0 34.7 27.9 28.7 29.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 29.3 28.3 29.2 -0.6 39.4 41.7 27.8 28.9 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 22.5 22.2 27.8 0.3 52.7 55.6 21.4 22.2 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 29.9 29.4 27.9 -0.1 46.1 48.1 28.6 29.5 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 29.0 29.3 26.1 0.6 62.2 60.4 27.3 28.6 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 27.8 27.7 28.5 -1.0 34.9 35.2 27.6 28.6 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 18.1 17.5 25.9 0.0 49.4 50.2 16.7 17.6 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 29.2 28.6 28.2 -0.1 46.3 48.7 28.2 28.8 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 29.0 28.4 26.6 -0.1 46.5 48.9 27.9 28.5 30.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 29.4 28.9 27.9 0.0 48.2 50.3 28.3 29.0 30.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 29.0 28.4 27.3 0.1 48.9 51.4 27.5 28.5 29.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 30.1 29.6 27.2 0.0 46.0 51.1 28.5 29.6 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 27.8 28.0 27.1 -0.6 39.8 41.6 27.8 29.0 29.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 30.0 30.1 29.7 0.6 57.6 59.4 29.1 29.6 30.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 30.8 30.6 27.8 0.2 52.2 54.1 29.0 30.4 31.8 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 27.2 27.4 28.2 -1.0 33.6 35.3 27.4 27.9 29.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 28.2 27.5 25.6 -0.2 46.7 47.4 26.8 27.8 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 27.4 27.8 28.9 -0.8 36.3 38.3 27.8 28.6 29.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 24.4 24.4 23.6 0.0 51.3 50.5 22.7 23.9 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 29.4 28.6 28.8 -0.5 41.8 42.7 27.9 29.0 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 27.7 27.9 28.1 -1.0 34.2 35.6 27.9 28.5 29.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 29.1 27.9 29.2 -0.3 44.2 45.8 27.7 28.8 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 28.8 28.1 27.4 -0.3 44.5 45.7 27.5 28.5 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 29.3 28.7 27.6 -0.5 41.9 43.3 28.3 28.9 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 30.1 29.7 27.0 0.1 48.6 51.9 27.9 29.7 30.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 28.9 28.2 28.0 -0.5 43.3 42.7 27.7 28.5 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 30.1 30.3 28.8 0.6 58.8 60.0 28.9 29.8 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 23.9 23.2 24.7 -0.3 46.5 46.9 21.9 23.5 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 27.7 27.8 28.7 -1.0 33.8 35.6 27.8 28.7 29.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------