***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.08.2016.-28.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 26.5 28.1 27.8 0.0 49.7 49.1 27.1 28.2 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 26.6 28.0 27.7 -0.1 46.6 48.2 26.5 28.1 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 26.3 28.6 28.4 0.3 56.6 51.6 26.5 28.4 29.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 19.8 21.3 26.9 0.7 57.3 55.2 20.3 21.0 22.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 27.5 29.7 27.0 0.5 56.1 53.3 27.2 28.9 30.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 26.2 28.4 25.0 0.8 57.2 56.8 26.1 27.8 29.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 26.2 27.5 27.5 -0.2 47.1 47.3 26.1 27.7 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 15.5 17.2 25.3 0.6 57.6 54.8 15.6 17.1 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 26.6 28.8 27.1 0.5 57.7 53.8 26.7 28.4 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 26.8 29.0 25.8 0.6 57.7 54.6 26.7 28.2 29.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 27.2 29.2 26.9 0.6 56.5 54.9 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 26.6 28.6 26.6 0.6 56.5 54.4 26.5 28.3 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 27.3 28.9 25.8 0.3 52.3 52.4 27.7 28.8 30.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 26.2 28.0 26.0 0.2 53.1 51.5 26.7 27.9 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 29.0 29.7 28.1 0.9 59.3 58.3 27.2 28.4 30.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 28.0 29.7 26.7 0.6 55.2 55.1 28.3 29.3 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 27.8 27.3 27.2 -0.2 47.4 47.5 26.1 27.4 28.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 25.5 27.8 25.1 0.6 57.6 54.2 25.9 27.0 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 26.2 27.7 28.0 0.1 50.8 50.0 26.3 27.7 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 21.6 23.6 22.9 0.6 60.2 54.5 22.0 22.9 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 26.5 28.6 27.7 0.3 54.6 51.2 26.8 28.5 29.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 26.3 27.6 27.1 -0.3 48.7 47.5 26.4 27.7 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 26.3 28.1 28.2 0.5 57.1 52.9 26.3 28.0 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 25.8 27.8 26.5 0.5 56.7 53.8 26.6 27.5 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 26.9 28.5 26.4 0.1 52.0 50.3 27.0 28.5 29.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 27.1 28.9 26.4 0.5 53.9 54.5 27.4 28.6 29.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 26.4 28.0 26.9 0.1 51.3 49.7 26.0 27.9 29.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 29.5 29.5 27.6 0.9 59.3 57.7 27.4 29.0 30.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 21.3 23.1 24.0 0.5 56.7 53.4 21.5 22.8 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 26.4 28.0 27.8 -0.1 47.8 48.4 26.4 28.0 29.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------