***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.08.2016.-21.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 30.9 30.7 29.6 0.1 55.2 53.9 29.4 30.6 31.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 30.4 30.0 29.4 -0.2 50.5 50.9 28.5 30.0 30.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 28.2 30.8 30.3 0.4 58.2 55.6 28.6 30.0 31.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 24.7 24.8 29.2 1.1 69.8 62.9 22.0 23.2 24.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 32.4 32.3 29.2 0.8 67.3 59.5 29.2 31.2 32.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 30.8 31.2 27.2 1.3 70.5 65.5 28.2 29.3 31.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 29.9 29.4 29.2 -0.2 49.3 50.0 28.3 29.4 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 19.9 19.5 27.6 1.1 67.0 61.6 16.8 18.8 19.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 31.2 31.5 29.2 0.8 65.3 59.0 28.7 30.2 31.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 31.1 30.9 28.0 1.0 65.6 60.4 28.3 30.1 30.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 31.7 31.9 29.1 1.1 69.5 61.9 28.3 30.8 31.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 31.1 31.0 28.9 1.1 68.2 61.7 28.0 30.0 30.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 32.4 32.4 28.0 0.8 67.7 60.2 28.9 30.8 32.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 30.1 30.2 27.9 0.4 57.9 55.2 28.7 29.8 30.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 32.2 32.5 30.3 1.3 70.7 65.5 28.9 30.9 32.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 33.0 33.2 28.9 1.1 70.4 62.6 29.4 31.7 33.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 29.1 28.7 29.0 -0.1 50.2 50.6 28.1 28.7 30.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 29.3 29.9 27.1 0.9 61.9 59.3 27.5 28.9 30.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 30.1 29.8 29.8 0.1 55.6 53.2 28.4 29.7 30.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 26.6 26.5 25.1 1.0 65.0 60.8 23.2 24.9 26.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 30.7 30.9 29.7 0.4 58.1 55.7 28.2 30.2 31.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 27.9 29.6 28.9 -0.1 50.7 51.7 28.5 29.5 30.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 27.8 30.3 30.0 0.5 61.7 56.7 28.6 29.8 30.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 30.0 30.4 28.4 0.7 60.3 57.9 27.5 29.7 30.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 30.5 30.8 28.3 0.3 61.0 56.0 29.1 30.0 31.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 32.0 31.9 28.8 1.2 67.4 63.1 28.4 30.5 31.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 30.4 30.1 28.7 0.2 59.2 55.4 28.3 29.9 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 32.1 32.6 29.9 1.4 71.4 65.5 29.1 30.6 32.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 22.3 24.9 26.1 0.8 61.7 58.9 22.5 24.5 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 30.2 29.7 29.5 -0.1 50.0 51.4 28.1 29.7 30.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------