***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.08.2016.-14.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 29.9 29.2 29.5 -0.8 42.9 42.4 28.1 29.4 30.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 29.4 28.8 29.7 -1.0 42.4 40.8 28.0 29.0 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 29.5 28.4 30.0 -0.8 43.4 43.2 27.6 29.1 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 22.1 21.8 28.3 0.1 54.3 51.0 20.4 21.5 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 28.0 29.3 28.6 -0.4 44.2 45.8 28.9 29.5 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 28.8 28.3 26.5 0.1 48.8 51.5 26.9 28.3 29.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 29.3 28.5 29.6 -0.9 42.2 41.4 27.5 28.9 29.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 17.7 16.9 26.5 -0.3 43.2 47.2 16.6 17.2 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 29.4 28.8 29.2 -0.3 46.6 47.5 28.2 28.9 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 29.0 28.3 27.3 -0.3 45.4 47.3 28.0 28.6 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 29.4 28.7 28.7 -0.4 42.8 46.6 28.4 28.9 30.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 28.8 27.9 27.9 -0.3 43.0 47.0 27.6 28.2 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 27.8 28.9 27.8 -0.4 40.7 45.3 28.7 29.1 30.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 29.2 28.5 28.2 -0.5 46.5 45.5 27.7 28.8 29.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 30.1 30.0 30.5 0.3 56.3 53.4 28.8 29.6 30.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 28.7 29.9 28.4 -0.2 44.1 48.0 29.1 30.2 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 28.9 28.0 29.4 -0.8 41.8 41.9 27.3 28.6 29.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 28.0 27.5 26.4 -0.3 47.1 47.0 26.9 27.6 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 29.2 28.7 29.9 -0.8 45.3 43.0 27.5 28.8 29.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 24.3 23.7 24.3 -0.2 45.5 47.5 23.0 23.7 25.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 29.7 28.6 29.6 -0.7 42.6 43.2 27.7 29.3 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 29.3 28.8 29.3 -0.8 42.6 42.0 28.0 28.8 29.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 28.8 28.4 30.3 -0.2 51.0 48.5 27.8 28.4 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 29.1 28.5 28.4 -0.3 48.4 47.0 27.1 28.6 29.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 29.6 28.7 28.4 -0.7 42.9 43.1 28.1 29.2 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 28.0 28.5 27.3 -0.5 39.7 45.0 28.1 29.3 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 29.1 28.4 28.9 -0.6 45.3 44.3 27.9 28.6 30.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 30.3 29.9 29.4 0.3 55.7 53.3 28.5 29.8 30.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 23.4 22.8 25.5 -0.4 46.2 46.4 22.2 22.9 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 29.2 28.3 29.7 -1.1 42.2 40.6 27.8 28.8 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------