***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.08.2016.-07.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 79 21 0 100 27.2 28.2 27.9 -2.0 27.7 27.5 28.8 30.0 31.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 83 17 0 100 27.2 26.7 27.7 -2.8 15.0 18.4 28.0 29.5 31.3 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 27.3 27.1 28.0 -2.3 24.0 25.8 28.3 29.3 30.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 21.0 22.6 26.7 -0.5 40.8 43.4 21.7 23.3 24.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 28.1 28.7 27.0 -1.4 29.6 33.2 29.1 30.1 31.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 29.6 29.3 25.5 0.1 49.0 50.2 27.7 29.3 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 87 13 0 100 26.8 26.5 27.7 -2.6 16.4 19.8 27.8 29.3 30.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 16.7 16.9 24.3 -1.5 25.8 31.8 17.5 18.5 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 27.9 28.7 27.6 -1.5 29.6 32.5 28.8 29.5 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 27.4 27.8 25.1 -1.7 26.0 30.5 28.1 29.5 30.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 27.8 27.9 27.2 -1.4 29.4 33.6 28.1 29.6 31.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 27.0 27.5 26.0 -1.1 29.2 35.2 27.8 29.1 30.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 28.3 29.2 27.1 -0.6 32.1 39.9 29.2 30.4 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 78 22 0 100 26.8 26.3 26.2 -2.4 17.1 22.6 27.7 29.4 30.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 29.3 30.7 29.9 -0.1 47.1 48.0 29.4 30.7 32.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 29.0 29.7 27.3 -0.6 36.6 40.6 29.2 30.9 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 85 15 0 100 26.4 25.5 27.2 -2.8 12.0 17.2 27.7 28.9 30.5 30 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 26.3 26.0 23.9 -2.0 19.9 27.2 27.4 28.3 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 26.4 25.9 27.8 -2.6 18.8 21.4 27.4 28.8 30.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 22.9 23.0 22.1 -1.6 24.6 31.1 23.8 24.6 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 27.6 28.1 28.1 -2.0 26.8 27.8 28.8 29.8 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 85 15 0 100 26.5 25.3 27.0 -2.9 11.0 16.8 27.6 29.4 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 27.2 27.0 28.2 -1.8 28.0 29.6 27.8 29.0 30.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 26.9 26.7 26.3 -2.1 20.7 26.1 27.8 28.8 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 27.5 28.7 27.2 -1.6 28.7 31.3 28.8 30.2 31.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 27.8 28.0 25.6 -0.9 29.3 37.2 28.8 29.7 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 27.4 27.5 27.6 -1.7 27.5 29.7 28.4 29.2 30.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 28.8 29.9 28.3 0.0 45.8 48.4 29.5 30.4 31.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 22.1 21.7 23.1 -2.0 19.5 27.1 22.8 23.9 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 82 18 0 100 26.7 26.4 27.8 -2.7 18.1 20.5 28.0 28.9 31.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------