***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.08.2016.-28.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 15.8 15.7 18.6 0.1 52.5 53.2 15.4 15.7 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 15.7 15.5 18.3 0.0 49.9 51.3 15.2 15.5 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 17.8 17.7 19.0 0.1 53.9 54.5 17.1 17.6 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 14.0 14.1 16.9 0.5 66.6 64.6 12.6 13.4 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 14.2 14.3 17.0 0.3 59.5 59.8 13.7 14.1 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 13.5 13.7 15.1 0.8 80.0 73.7 12.6 13.1 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 15.9 15.6 18.4 -0.1 45.1 48.6 15.3 15.7 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 9.4 9.6 14.8 0.5 70.0 65.8 8.3 8.9 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 15.4 15.7 17.1 0.4 64.3 63.1 14.8 15.3 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 15.4 15.6 15.6 0.4 67.2 63.8 14.9 15.3 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 14.8 15.1 16.7 0.4 63.4 61.7 14.2 14.6 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 13.2 13.3 15.8 0.5 66.6 64.3 12.4 13.1 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 14.5 14.4 15.2 0.4 66.8 65.1 13.7 14.0 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 16.0 16.0 16.7 0.2 59.8 57.7 15.4 15.9 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 16.9 17.0 18.6 0.7 71.8 69.6 15.9 16.3 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 16.1 16.1 16.1 0.5 65.3 65.2 15.0 15.5 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.2 16.0 18.1 0.1 53.6 53.6 15.7 16.0 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 13.8 14.1 14.9 0.4 62.9 62.8 12.9 13.6 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 15.7 15.6 18.4 0.1 54.1 53.9 15.2 15.6 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 9.9 9.9 12.7 0.5 69.0 65.4 9.1 9.6 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 15.1 15.2 18.3 0.2 54.7 55.7 14.7 15.0 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 15.1 14.9 18.1 0.0 53.2 51.3 14.8 14.9 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 15.0 15.0 18.6 0.3 62.6 59.9 14.8 14.9 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 15.7 15.7 16.8 0.3 61.0 60.9 15.3 15.6 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 15.3 15.3 17.6 0.2 55.2 55.6 15.0 15.2 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 14.6 14.6 14.7 0.4 66.7 63.6 13.8 14.3 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 15.9 16.0 18.1 0.2 56.7 55.7 15.0 15.8 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 14.3 14.4 17.5 0.7 71.5 69.4 13.7 13.9 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.1 13.4 14.2 0.4 63.9 62.2 12.4 12.8 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 15.9 15.7 18.5 -0.1 46.8 49.6 15.4 15.8 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------