***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.08.2016.-28.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 14.9 15.6 17.5 0.3 59.3 54.2 13.8 14.6 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 15.0 15.7 17.1 0.2 60.5 54.6 13.7 14.5 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 15.8 17.7 17.9 0.4 59.6 56.6 15.6 17.2 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.7 13.2 15.7 0.6 63.8 58.9 11.2 12.3 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.8 13.7 15.7 0.5 60.8 58.1 11.3 13.5 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 13.1 13.2 14.0 0.8 70.5 62.8 11.8 12.5 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.6 17.2 0.2 59.1 54.1 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 8.3 8.7 13.7 0.7 63.9 59.7 7.0 7.9 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.1 15.7 0.6 62.9 59.0 13.2 14.7 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.8 14.9 14.4 0.6 63.9 59.7 13.2 14.5 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.2 14.4 15.3 0.6 61.7 59.0 12.6 13.8 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 12.6 12.9 14.5 0.6 61.5 58.9 11.3 12.4 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 13.6 13.8 13.6 0.5 61.5 58.3 12.4 13.3 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.9 15.5 0.4 61.7 56.7 14.0 15.1 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 16.0 16.1 17.0 0.6 64.5 60.4 14.4 15.8 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.7 14.7 0.6 65.3 60.5 14.0 15.0 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.8 16.9 0.3 62.1 55.8 14.2 15.4 16.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.7 13.4 13.7 0.6 64.5 60.0 11.2 12.3 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.3 15.9 17.2 0.3 60.6 54.8 13.8 15.0 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.9 9.4 11.4 0.6 62.3 59.6 7.5 8.7 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 14.5 14.6 17.0 0.4 62.3 56.2 13.2 14.1 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.0 16.8 0.1 55.2 52.4 13.4 13.8 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.8 17.4 0.4 61.7 56.3 13.1 14.4 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 15.6 15.4 15.5 0.6 65.3 59.7 13.3 15.1 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 12.9 15.2 16.2 0.3 62.1 55.0 13.3 14.3 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 14.1 13.9 13.5 0.6 64.0 59.8 13.0 13.5 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 15.4 15.7 16.8 0.3 62.1 55.2 13.2 14.9 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.9 16.1 0.7 65.8 60.8 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.6 13.0 13.0 0.5 63.1 58.2 10.9 12.2 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.9 17.4 0.2 57.7 53.9 13.7 15.3 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------