***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.08.2016.-21.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 16.6 16.3 19.0 0.5 63.7 60.7 14.9 15.7 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 17.1 16.6 18.6 0.5 68.0 60.7 14.8 15.5 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 19.3 19.3 19.4 0.6 68.9 62.2 17.1 18.1 19.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 15.5 15.9 17.4 1.0 71.8 66.6 12.3 14.4 15.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 14.9 15.1 17.2 0.9 70.9 65.2 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 14.0 14.1 15.6 1.2 75.5 71.2 12.6 13.5 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 16.9 16.7 18.7 0.4 64.7 58.5 15.2 15.8 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 10.4 10.8 15.3 1.1 78.0 69.0 8.0 8.7 10.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 16.1 16.3 17.2 0.8 73.7 65.0 14.4 15.2 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 15.8 16.0 15.9 0.9 76.4 66.8 14.6 15.4 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 15.2 15.3 16.9 1.0 74.8 67.6 13.9 14.8 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 13.6 13.7 16.1 1.0 76.7 68.5 12.2 13.1 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 14.6 14.7 15.1 0.8 73.9 66.1 13.5 13.9 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 16.9 16.8 17.0 0.7 72.3 63.4 15.1 15.8 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 17.2 17.2 18.7 1.0 73.1 67.1 15.8 16.6 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 16.6 16.8 16.3 1.0 75.3 68.8 15.3 15.9 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 17.0 16.9 18.4 0.6 71.2 61.3 15.6 16.0 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 14.3 14.5 15.2 0.9 76.5 66.4 12.8 13.5 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 16.6 16.7 18.8 0.6 71.1 62.3 14.9 15.4 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 10.4 10.5 12.9 0.9 76.7 68.1 8.9 9.6 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 15.0 15.8 18.5 0.6 67.1 62.0 14.0 14.7 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 15.9 15.6 18.4 0.5 69.4 61.2 14.4 14.9 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 16.2 16.4 19.0 0.8 74.0 64.1 14.3 14.8 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 16.2 16.3 17.0 0.9 74.9 65.5 14.7 15.3 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 16.3 16.0 17.7 0.7 65.5 62.4 14.8 15.7 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 15.0 15.1 15.1 0.9 74.2 66.2 13.8 14.6 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 16.8 16.8 18.3 0.6 64.8 61.7 15.4 15.8 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 14.7 14.9 17.9 1.1 74.6 68.6 13.2 14.1 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 14.7 14.9 14.6 0.9 76.0 66.3 11.9 13.8 14.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 17.0 16.8 18.9 0.5 64.6 59.8 15.3 15.7 17.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------