***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.08.2016.-14.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 16.4 15.7 18.9 -0.5 42.4 43.6 15.5 16.2 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.2 18.6 -0.5 43.3 44.5 14.9 15.6 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 18.3 18.0 19.2 -0.5 43.6 44.3 17.4 18.1 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 13.8 13.4 16.9 -0.2 49.3 49.0 12.3 13.5 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 14.8 13.9 17.2 -0.3 42.7 45.6 13.5 14.5 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.3 15.1 0.1 49.6 53.0 12.9 13.3 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.7 18.7 -0.7 41.9 42.7 15.2 15.8 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.6 14.8 -0.2 46.1 47.4 8.5 8.7 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 15.9 15.5 17.4 -0.1 44.5 48.6 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.4 15.7 -0.2 45.2 47.5 14.8 15.8 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.1 16.9 -0.3 42.3 45.0 14.5 15.2 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 13.7 13.2 15.8 -0.3 45.5 46.1 12.7 13.5 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.1 15.4 -0.3 39.9 45.5 14.0 14.3 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.0 17.0 -0.3 44.5 45.5 15.6 16.0 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 16.5 16.4 18.9 0.1 53.2 52.4 16.0 16.4 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 16.3 15.4 16.3 -0.3 42.4 46.5 15.0 15.9 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 16.8 16.4 18.5 -0.3 46.0 46.8 15.6 16.6 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 14.2 13.6 15.0 -0.3 44.6 46.4 12.8 13.9 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.6 18.8 -0.4 45.4 46.0 15.2 15.6 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 10.1 9.8 12.9 -0.2 46.1 47.6 9.2 9.9 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.1 18.5 -0.4 40.6 44.4 14.7 15.6 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.4 14.9 18.6 -0.4 46.3 45.4 14.6 15.1 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.1 19.0 -0.1 50.4 50.1 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 16.0 15.7 17.1 -0.3 46.8 47.0 15.5 15.8 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 16.2 15.8 17.9 -0.4 43.3 44.9 14.3 16.0 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 14.9 14.5 14.8 -0.3 40.4 44.9 14.2 14.7 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 16.2 15.3 18.4 -0.4 44.1 45.6 14.8 16.0 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 14.7 14.7 17.6 0.0 51.8 51.3 13.6 14.5 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.8 14.3 -0.3 43.9 46.7 12.5 13.0 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.6 18.9 -0.6 41.3 42.9 14.8 16.0 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------