***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.08.2016.-07.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 17.0 16.1 19.2 0.0 44.3 48.2 15.5 16.8 17.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 16.6 15.6 18.7 -0.3 39.5 44.2 15.2 16.4 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 18.5 17.9 19.3 -0.1 43.9 46.6 17.6 18.1 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 14.3 14.7 17.5 0.6 62.4 61.3 12.8 14.1 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 15.1 15.1 17.8 0.3 51.3 53.3 13.8 14.8 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 14.3 14.7 15.7 1.1 76.2 73.4 12.9 13.5 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 16.7 16.0 18.8 -0.4 39.7 42.6 15.6 16.3 17.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 10.0 10.1 15.4 0.5 59.4 60.0 8.7 9.8 10.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 16.5 16.5 18.1 0.4 53.4 57.2 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 16.4 16.6 16.3 0.4 52.7 56.9 15.3 16.2 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 15.6 15.4 17.7 0.3 51.8 54.2 15.0 15.4 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 14.2 14.4 16.6 0.6 63.0 61.1 13.0 13.9 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 15.7 15.5 16.7 0.8 68.2 66.3 14.6 14.8 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 17.1 16.9 17.5 0.2 50.0 54.2 15.8 16.9 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 17.9 17.8 19.9 1.0 71.0 69.9 16.1 17.0 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 16.5 17.1 17.2 0.6 61.5 61.3 15.5 16.2 17.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 17.0 16.5 18.5 -0.3 40.7 44.2 16.4 16.7 17.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 14.9 14.8 15.6 0.3 49.4 55.5 14.2 14.8 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 16.6 15.9 18.8 -0.2 42.2 46.1 15.7 16.3 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 10.8 10.9 13.7 0.5 60.1 61.5 9.6 10.5 11.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 16.1 15.4 19.1 0.1 44.6 49.0 15.1 15.8 16.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 16.2 15.7 18.5 -0.4 41.3 42.2 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 16.4 16.2 19.1 0.2 49.2 53.5 15.0 16.3 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 16.9 16.8 17.7 0.2 50.8 53.6 15.7 16.7 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 16.6 16.4 18.6 0.2 49.7 52.4 14.9 16.4 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 15.0 14.9 15.4 0.5 58.6 61.3 14.1 14.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 16.6 16.3 18.9 0.2 50.1 52.2 15.1 16.3 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 46 54 100 15.4 15.8 18.3 0.9 70.3 67.7 14.3 14.8 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 14.0 14.0 14.8 0.4 53.1 56.6 12.9 13.8 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 16.9 16.0 19.0 -0.4 39.1 42.7 15.6 16.6 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------