***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.07.2017.-27.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 22.2 40.1 23.7 62.7 42.6 34.3 34.8 44.1 53.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 25.8 35.4 25.7 68.2 41.4 36.4 25.0 41.9 58.7 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 21.8 29.1 24.7 63.8 42.1 35.1 26.6 35.3 65.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 25.2 24.0 17.4 43.6 30.9 27.3 25.4 44.9 69.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 18.7 18.7 17.7 46.5 32.5 27.9 19.4 31.6 38.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 22.7 25.9 22.8 51.0 29.5 28.0 27.2 36.7 48.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 24.5 32.5 24.8 66.1 39.4 34.7 27.1 45.3 50.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 34.8 34.6 23.3 52.6 31.0 27.4 39.6 52.0 79.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 21.2 28.7 19.3 47.8 33.2 28.7 28.7 37.9 46.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 26.8 30.4 23.5 49.4 31.1 27.6 32.5 48.9 63.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 21.1 20.6 18.6 49.4 33.5 28.2 20.5 33.2 48.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 16.0 19.0 19.4 54.6 35.7 29.4 17.6 28.3 43.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 14.3 21.2 19.2 52.4 34.2 29.9 21.0 26.8 42.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 35.6 37.9 29.8 59.9 36.3 32.2 35.3 54.4 73.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 13.1 15.6 15.0 45.1 33.8 29.6 14.8 31.5 49.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 17.7 20.7 18.3 50.2 33.9 29.4 20.3 34.9 46.7 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 31.4 39.3 25.9 68.5 40.1 36.7 37.0 42.4 51.2 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 31.6 39.5 27.8 52.1 30.6 28.2 40.5 45.9 57.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 26.0 39.6 26.0 68.0 41.8 36.9 30.0 43.5 54.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 27.7 34.7 29.5 56.5 28.9 27.0 36.1 44.3 59.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 27.8 34.6 19.9 51.7 35.7 30.3 31.4 43.8 57.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 27.8 36.1 29.1 74.1 43.9 38.8 32.2 38.8 49.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 24.4 35.9 25.7 64.6 40.5 36.0 28.1 37.9 49.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 39.0 41.5 26.8 56.2 35.9 31.5 40.7 52.7 65.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 22.6 28.0 20.6 51.0 35.8 29.7 25.2 43.5 54.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 15.3 20.7 17.6 53.1 33.6 29.3 20.3 28.2 37.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 24.9 41.3 24.1 59.5 39.5 32.3 33.7 48.4 60.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 15.9 13.0 16.6 44.5 31.7 28.6 13.5 26.3 32.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 42.1 43.8 30.1 55.4 30.1 28.3 44.9 58.5 70.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 18.6 24.2 25.6 67.8 41.0 36.1 20.1 29.0 41.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------