***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.08.2017.-27.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 0.6 3.7 8.1 82.0 61.2 41.0 0.0 1.5 8.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 2.2 12.3 9.0 87.0 67.1 43.3 2.1 4.8 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.0 11.5 8.6 82.2 61.7 41.0 0.8 5.1 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 4.2 11.8 5.6 52.0 58.3 40.2 1.7 9.9 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 1.2 7.9 5.9 58.8 57.9 38.2 0.7 3.1 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.7 9.7 6.3 50.4 52.8 38.2 0.8 9.0 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 1.6 13.1 8.7 86.6 65.4 42.4 0.7 4.4 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 6.2 19.1 7.6 66.8 55.5 37.4 3.7 15.3 23.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 1.2 7.0 6.4 60.4 55.9 36.8 0.5 3.6 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 2.5 9.2 7.7 62.9 54.6 36.6 1.8 6.2 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.0 6.1 6.0 65.1 59.8 39.2 2.3 4.4 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.4 6.3 6.1 67.1 58.5 39.0 1.7 5.4 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 1.9 9.0 5.9 57.1 58.9 40.6 0.6 3.9 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 3.6 12.7 9.4 67.8 54.9 38.2 3.7 9.1 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 0.4 5.8 4.9 52.0 62.5 42.9 0.4 1.0 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 1.8 7.5 5.6 58.8 60.9 41.1 0.9 4.1 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 3.8 18.0 8.5 81.9 65.1 41.6 3.4 11.0 18.7 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 2.7 8.8 8.9 61.9 53.8 37.0 1.4 7.3 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 3.5 13.6 8.9 84.8 65.4 42.9 3.0 9.2 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 4.9 14.6 9.8 69.8 55.8 40.3 8.6 12.9 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 2.7 8.9 6.7 65.4 57.5 38.4 0.7 6.7 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 4.5 19.4 9.5 87.1 65.9 42.7 4.1 9.8 19.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 2.7 10.6 8.4 77.8 60.3 40.3 1.5 6.8 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 3.3 9.9 8.4 63.7 54.3 36.9 1.1 8.1 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.6 6.4 6.3 58.8 55.9 38.3 0.7 5.6 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.2 11.6 5.7 60.5 60.0 41.5 1.1 4.4 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.7 10.7 7.7 74.3 59.1 39.7 2.3 5.8 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 1.1 8.1 5.6 55.5 61.6 42.5 0.3 2.5 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 4.1 12.0 9.2 64.6 53.0 37.2 3.4 10.5 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 1.5 10.2 9.2 91.2 65.5 43.1 1.1 3.6 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------