***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.08.2017.-20.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 0.7 10.2 6.8 83.5 66.6 47.8 0.3 1.4 9.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.1 6.0 7.0 85.2 64.9 46.2 0.6 2.4 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 0.5 7.6 7.4 85.8 66.4 47.2 0.1 1.3 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 0.4 2.4 4.5 58.8 58.5 43.3 0.2 0.9 6.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 0.0 1.2 5.2 68.5 60.6 42.8 0.0 0.0 1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.1 2.0 7.7 84.6 61.9 47.4 0.0 0.6 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 1.0 4.8 6.5 77.7 62.8 46.0 0.8 2.1 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 3.0 10.1 7.5 83.6 60.7 43.7 1.6 6.6 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 0.1 1.9 6.0 70.4 61.8 42.4 0.0 0.2 3.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 0.1 4.4 7.6 76.1 61.0 43.1 0.0 0.3 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 0.1 1.3 5.2 72.4 62.4 43.8 0.0 0.2 1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 0.1 3.4 5.9 85.7 62.8 44.3 0.0 0.3 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 1.7 1.4 6.0 84.0 64.7 47.1 0.0 0.1 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 2.0 10.1 9.6 89.7 66.4 44.0 0.7 6.4 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 1.2 0.9 4.3 62.9 64.6 46.7 0.0 0.3 1.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 1.7 1.4 5.2 74.3 64.4 46.1 0.0 0.3 1.8 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 1.2 3.5 6.4 73.4 59.3 42.4 0.7 2.8 6.1 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 0.5 6.5 9.3 82.0 60.0 42.3 0.1 1.5 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 0.9 4.6 7.3 87.7 65.8 46.8 0.5 2.0 4.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 1.7 7.2 9.7 84.9 56.9 42.3 1.6 4.9 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 0.5 3.7 5.9 73.5 62.6 44.4 0.0 1.4 4.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 0.9 4.2 6.7 73.3 59.7 39.4 0.9 1.8 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 1.7 8.4 7.5 88.7 66.3 45.9 0.9 4.1 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 1.1 6.6 8.9 84.7 63.5 44.1 0.6 3.0 9.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 0.4 1.8 5.8 70.6 61.3 45.3 0.1 0.8 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 1.1 1.5 5.0 89.8 67.1 48.6 0.0 0.1 1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.9 8.5 6.8 79.3 64.1 46.7 0.8 6.1 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 2.0 2.0 4.7 64.1 62.7 46.2 0.1 0.7 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 2.2 8.4 10.1 85.9 60.0 42.0 0.7 6.2 11.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 0.7 4.9 7.2 86.3 65.8 47.9 0.1 1.5 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------