***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.08.2017.-13.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 2.4 11.7 7.4 71.3 59.9 45.5 0.0 5.0 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 8.5 15.9 8.1 75.6 61.4 48.1 2.2 4.8 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 2.7 12.9 7.6 72.3 60.0 44.8 0.9 5.5 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.7 11.5 5.9 61.5 57.3 44.1 4.5 10.0 22.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 3.0 8.8 5.6 57.7 52.3 40.5 1.3 7.2 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.3 10.8 8.1 76.7 57.5 45.4 2.7 8.6 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.8 10.0 7.7 73.0 61.7 46.9 2.3 5.1 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 18.0 15.8 6.6 63.3 53.2 41.8 9.4 15.3 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 4.6 13.5 5.7 56.6 53.6 38.3 4.9 11.9 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 6.3 13.7 6.7 59.5 52.7 40.1 9.0 12.9 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 5.3 11.8 6.3 61.1 52.2 39.8 4.1 11.6 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.8 11.0 6.2 70.9 59.1 43.4 1.9 8.1 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.5 6.7 6.7 81.7 63.2 49.9 1.6 4.8 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 15.3 13.5 8.9 65.6 59.2 43.2 5.4 12.9 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.3 8.6 5.3 64.1 59.2 44.0 1.6 7.3 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.4 9.7 6.6 72.8 58.3 44.5 2.4 7.3 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.4 11.9 9.0 85.9 65.9 48.8 2.4 6.9 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 5.7 13.1 7.7 61.7 52.7 39.7 5.1 12.7 16.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 8.6 8.9 8.5 76.9 60.2 48.4 2.3 4.9 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 3.4 8.2 8.1 72.2 54.0 44.7 3.7 6.9 16.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.4 14.3 6.1 60.8 55.5 41.4 2.1 9.1 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.6 16.1 10.6 96.3 67.2 49.9 4.1 7.3 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.6 6.5 8.4 72.6 58.4 46.8 0.9 4.9 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 6.3 19.0 7.9 63.9 55.9 40.8 5.7 12.1 20.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 5.1 13.9 7.3 61.9 56.7 41.9 1.6 12.3 21.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.9 7.4 5.7 67.5 55.8 44.9 0.4 5.9 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.7 8.7 7.9 66.7 57.3 43.5 1.3 6.1 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.1 6.1 5.4 62.5 59.0 44.8 1.1 4.5 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 8.5 17.7 8.8 65.8 50.7 40.7 5.8 17.1 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.4 7.3 7.9 74.9 60.7 47.8 3.5 5.7 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------