***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.07.2017.-06.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 83 17 0 100 0.7 0.7 1.4 15.1 26.4 18.2 1.5 4.3 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 81 19 0 100 2.1 0.8 1.5 18.3 32.8 21.9 0.8 11.1 18.0 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 1.2 0.4 1.1 12.0 28.8 18.8 1.1 6.5 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 91 9 0 100 0.5 0.0 1.3 11.1 18.5 13.9 0.7 5.6 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 85 15 0 100 0.7 0.0 1.0 9.5 22.1 15.4 0.1 4.7 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 95 5 0 100 0.3 0.0 0.8 6.1 12.2 9.5 2.0 5.3 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 77 23 0 100 2.3 0.8 1.8 21.7 36.9 22.8 0.4 10.2 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 89 11 0 100 0.8 0.0 1.6 12.3 19.3 16.1 2.6 7.3 16.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 85 15 0 100 0.8 0.0 1.2 10.6 24.8 16.7 0.3 5.6 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 89 11 0 100 0.8 0.0 1.5 10.6 20.6 15.5 1.5 7.6 18.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 86 14 0 100 0.3 0.0 1.0 9.3 25.0 14.8 0.2 2.0 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 88 12 0 100 0.5 0.0 1.2 11.0 21.8 16.2 1.1 4.0 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 94 6 0 100 0.2 0.0 0.7 6.4 18.6 11.8 0.3 4.0 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 82 18 0 100 0.8 0.8 1.9 16.5 29.7 19.7 1.2 4.3 20.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 93 7 0 100 0.1 0.0 0.5 6.0 19.4 10.4 0.0 1.1 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 89 11 0 100 0.7 0.0 0.9 8.5 20.1 13.1 2.7 5.9 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 1.9 4.6 2.0 24.6 36.4 26.0 2.9 8.3 23.1 30 Palic 37000G16 86 14 0 100 1.4 0.2 1.8 12.1 20.6 15.9 4.1 10.1 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 78 22 0 100 1.4 1.0 1.4 16.6 31.8 21.5 1.2 6.1 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 91 9 0 100 1.1 1.0 1.9 12.3 19.1 15.2 4.5 9.4 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 85 15 0 100 0.5 0.0 1.3 12.5 28.0 16.9 0.3 3.2 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 1.4 3.3 2.3 28.2 40.8 27.4 1.5 5.1 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 77 23 0 100 0.9 0.3 1.5 16.4 31.1 21.3 0.4 4.0 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 81 19 0 100 2.2 0.2 1.7 14.5 27.0 18.4 1.9 11.4 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 87 13 0 100 0.2 0.0 1.3 13.0 26.0 15.0 0.1 1.8 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 91 9 0 100 0.6 0.0 1.2 12.2 24.0 16.2 1.3 7.2 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 84 16 0 100 0.7 0.4 1.6 16.7 26.9 17.0 0.7 4.1 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 92 8 0 100 0.4 0.0 0.9 8.0 17.1 12.0 0.1 4.6 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 86 14 0 100 1.6 1.4 1.9 13.2 21.3 16.7 2.9 9.3 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 84 16 0 100 0.7 1.0 1.3 14.5 29.9 19.8 1.5 4.4 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------