***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.07.2017.-27.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 30.6 32.1 32.0 3.0 92.5 88.5 28.2 29.7 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 30.4 30.9 31.8 2.7 89.3 85.1 28.2 28.9 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 5 95 100 30.6 31.3 32.2 3.0 90.3 87.4 27.9 29.0 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 24.3 26.2 30.4 3.6 97.1 94.1 21.5 22.5 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 31.7 33.0 30.7 3.2 92.5 90.6 28.6 29.6 31.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 30.3 31.0 27.2 2.1 86.6 82.4 27.4 28.5 29.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 30.0 30.9 31.6 2.6 87.9 85.2 27.8 28.9 29.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 19.5 20.0 28.4 2.8 90.3 87.9 16.7 17.6 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 31.0 32.2 31.2 3.4 93.5 91.6 28.2 28.9 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 4 96 100 31.0 32.0 29.4 3.1 90.6 88.8 27.9 28.4 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 31.0 32.7 30.5 3.1 92.5 90.2 28.3 29.3 30.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 30.7 31.4 29.7 2.9 92.0 88.7 27.6 28.5 29.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 31.8 32.4 29.3 2.6 89.9 86.2 28.5 29.9 31.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 5 95 100 30.4 31.3 30.2 2.9 91.3 87.1 27.8 28.9 29.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 31.8 33.2 31.8 3.5 96.9 94.3 29.1 30.0 30.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 32.4 33.5 30.1 3.0 93.6 90.2 29.0 30.5 31.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 29.7 30.5 31.4 2.6 88.6 85.2 27.4 28.2 29.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 5 95 100 29.7 30.7 28.5 2.9 89.6 87.4 26.9 27.9 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 9 91 100 30.1 30.9 32.0 2.9 90.2 86.2 27.8 28.7 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 7 93 100 26.0 26.8 26.0 2.6 88.4 86.1 22.7 24.0 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 5 95 100 30.9 31.7 31.8 3.0 91.1 88.7 28.1 29.1 30.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 30.0 30.6 30.9 2.3 83.7 81.5 28.0 28.6 29.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 30.3 31.7 32.3 3.4 93.8 89.9 27.8 28.9 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 4 96 100 30.4 31.1 30.3 3.0 91.3 88.3 27.5 28.6 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 31.1 32.5 30.8 3.2 92.0 90.3 28.2 29.3 30.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 5 95 100 31.3 32.3 29.3 2.9 94.4 89.8 27.9 29.8 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 30.3 32.0 31.3 3.0 92.5 89.3 27.8 28.6 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 31.6 33.1 30.8 3.4 96.0 92.9 29.0 30.0 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 25.4 25.9 27.3 2.6 87.3 85.5 21.9 23.5 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 10 90 100 30.4 31.5 31.9 2.7 88.8 85.6 27.9 29.0 29.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------