***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.08.2017.-27.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 29.9 30.8 30.5 2.5 77.9 73.5 27.1 28.0 30.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 29.6 30.1 30.2 2.3 76.5 71.1 26.2 28.0 29.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 30.4 31.2 30.7 2.5 76.0 72.8 26.3 28.4 28.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 23.8 25.8 29.4 3.2 84.7 79.3 20.4 21.7 22.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 31.1 32.2 29.3 2.8 79.2 75.5 28.0 29.2 30.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 30.1 30.9 26.2 2.0 74.5 70.5 26.6 27.5 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 29.0 29.6 30.2 2.3 76.5 71.5 25.7 27.6 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 19.3 19.6 27.2 2.5 75.0 73.2 16.1 16.8 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 30.2 31.1 29.5 2.9 78.7 75.6 26.9 28.6 29.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 30.0 30.6 28.1 2.7 77.6 74.2 27.2 28.2 29.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 30.7 31.4 29.0 2.8 78.4 75.3 27.5 28.8 29.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 29.9 30.1 28.6 2.6 75.2 73.6 27.2 28.1 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 31.6 31.4 27.7 2.2 73.1 71.3 28.0 28.8 30.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 29.6 30.2 28.6 2.6 76.2 72.6 26.4 27.9 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 31.5 32.6 30.0 3.0 83.5 79.2 27.0 29.1 30.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 32.1 32.8 28.7 2.7 79.8 75.1 28.7 29.9 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 29.1 29.5 29.9 2.2 75.5 70.3 25.8 27.8 28.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 29.0 28.8 27.3 2.7 75.9 73.0 26.0 27.0 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 29.2 29.8 30.4 2.5 76.7 71.9 26.0 27.9 29.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 25.5 25.7 24.7 2.3 72.3 70.9 22.3 23.0 23.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 30.4 31.1 30.1 2.6 76.9 73.9 26.6 28.6 29.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 29.4 29.6 29.6 2.1 73.6 69.5 26.3 28.0 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 29.6 30.3 30.6 2.8 78.2 73.8 26.4 28.1 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 29.5 29.9 28.8 2.7 75.9 73.4 26.2 27.7 28.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 30.6 31.7 29.3 2.8 80.6 75.7 26.4 28.5 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 31.1 31.8 28.2 2.4 76.6 73.6 27.7 28.7 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 29.7 30.9 29.7 2.6 79.5 74.5 26.5 27.8 29.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 31.2 32.6 29.5 3.0 83.7 78.3 27.6 29.2 30.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 24.7 24.8 26.1 2.4 73.2 71.0 21.5 22.6 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 29.4 30.0 30.4 2.4 76.1 71.5 26.3 28.0 29.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------