***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.08.2017.-20.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 31.9 31.2 30.2 1.2 66.6 62.8 29.0 30.9 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 30.3 30.9 29.8 0.9 62.4 59.1 28.5 30.0 31.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 31.3 31.5 30.4 1.2 65.5 61.8 28.2 30.4 31.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 24.9 24.6 29.3 2.0 73.8 69.5 21.8 23.3 24.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 32.3 32.5 29.0 1.4 65.9 64.2 28.7 31.0 32.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 30.1 30.4 25.9 0.7 61.5 57.9 28.1 29.8 30.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 30.2 30.3 29.8 0.9 62.6 59.7 28.4 29.9 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 20.0 19.9 27.1 1.2 66.1 62.4 16.7 18.6 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 31.3 31.4 29.2 1.4 65.7 64.4 28.2 29.9 31.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 31.0 31.1 27.8 1.3 66.0 63.3 27.4 30.0 31.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 31.9 31.8 28.8 1.4 67.1 64.4 28.1 31.0 31.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 31.1 30.8 28.4 1.2 66.2 62.3 27.7 29.9 30.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 31.4 31.9 27.4 0.9 61.4 58.8 28.9 30.9 32.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 30.9 30.9 28.2 1.1 65.3 60.8 27.8 30.1 30.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 32.1 32.2 30.1 2.0 73.3 70.3 29.0 30.4 32.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 32.9 33.4 28.5 1.4 67.8 64.3 29.6 31.4 33.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 29.5 29.4 29.4 0.8 61.9 58.2 27.9 29.1 29.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 29.9 30.3 27.0 1.1 65.5 61.5 27.0 28.8 30.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 30.6 30.5 30.1 1.1 64.4 60.4 27.6 29.9 30.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 26.4 26.5 24.5 0.9 63.8 60.0 23.1 24.9 26.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 31.4 31.3 29.8 1.2 64.3 62.2 27.9 30.5 31.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 30.1 30.5 29.1 0.6 60.3 56.3 28.5 29.7 30.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 30.7 30.8 30.2 1.3 68.7 63.4 28.0 30.1 30.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 30.7 30.8 28.4 1.2 65.4 61.7 27.1 29.7 30.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 31.4 31.6 29.0 1.4 68.6 65.2 28.2 30.1 31.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 32.1 31.5 28.0 1.2 65.8 62.2 28.0 30.9 31.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 31.2 30.9 29.4 1.3 67.9 63.8 28.0 30.1 30.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 32.2 32.5 29.4 1.9 73.0 69.0 28.9 30.9 32.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 24.7 25.8 25.8 0.9 62.2 58.9 22.4 24.2 26.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 30.5 30.7 30.0 1.0 63.8 59.9 28.2 30.2 30.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------