***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.08.2017.-13.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 44 56 100 30.5 31.5 32.2 2.4 77.3 71.5 28.4 29.2 30.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 30.3 30.4 31.6 1.7 69.2 65.3 28.1 28.9 30.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 30.1 30.8 32.3 2.2 73.9 69.3 27.4 28.9 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 23.6 25.2 30.7 3.3 86.1 80.0 20.8 21.3 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 31.0 31.8 31.0 2.7 79.5 74.0 28.5 29.4 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 29.4 30.1 28.2 2.4 81.1 74.5 27.2 28.2 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 30.0 30.5 31.5 1.7 70.5 65.9 28.0 28.9 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 18.5 19.1 28.8 2.5 77.4 72.5 16.5 17.3 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 30.3 31.0 31.7 2.8 80.8 74.9 28.0 28.8 29.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 29.9 30.5 29.7 2.5 76.8 72.2 27.9 28.5 29.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 30.6 31.6 31.1 2.7 79.3 73.7 28.3 28.8 29.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 29.7 30.5 30.2 2.7 80.0 74.2 27.5 28.3 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 31.0 31.8 30.2 2.4 79.9 72.9 28.6 29.8 30.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 29.9 30.2 30.0 1.7 70.5 65.5 27.8 28.5 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 31.3 32.9 32.7 3.5 88.9 82.7 28.9 29.7 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 31.6 32.3 30.8 2.8 82.7 76.1 29.4 30.2 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 29.8 29.4 31.0 1.5 67.6 63.2 27.3 28.5 29.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 28.6 29.0 28.6 2.2 75.2 69.4 26.7 27.5 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 29.9 30.1 31.8 1.8 70.6 66.3 27.1 28.7 29.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 24.9 25.4 26.4 2.1 76.1 70.2 22.9 24.0 25.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 30.3 30.9 32.1 2.4 77.8 71.4 27.7 29.3 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 29.5 29.5 30.5 1.0 63.0 59.1 27.9 29.1 29.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 30.0 30.5 32.1 2.3 75.1 69.7 27.6 28.4 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 29.8 30.1 30.4 2.1 73.0 68.2 27.0 28.4 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 30.6 31.5 31.2 2.6 78.4 73.5 28.2 29.1 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 30.5 32.0 30.1 3.0 84.3 77.6 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 30.1 31.0 31.5 2.4 77.6 72.1 27.6 28.8 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 31.2 32.2 31.4 3.2 86.6 80.5 28.6 29.6 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 24.4 24.5 27.5 1.9 72.4 66.8 22.1 23.1 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 30.1 30.6 31.9 1.9 71.1 67.1 27.8 28.8 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------