***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.07.2017.-06.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 32.7 33.7 35.1 5.8 99.5 98.9 28.4 30.0 31.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 31.6 34.1 35.4 5.8 99.3 97.9 28.5 29.2 31.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 32.2 34.6 35.3 5.9 99.5 98.4 28.2 29.3 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 25.1 27.2 32.2 5.9 99.9 99.0 21.9 23.6 24.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 32.5 35.9 33.3 5.8 99.3 98.3 28.4 30.6 31.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 30.6 31.1 28.3 3.5 89.6 88.7 28.2 29.5 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 31.7 34.2 34.9 5.5 99.3 97.3 27.8 29.5 30.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 19.7 22.7 30.3 5.2 98.6 97.1 17.8 18.8 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 32.3 35.3 34.6 6.3 100.0 99.3 28.8 30.2 30.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 31.6 35.1 31.9 5.7 98.8 97.6 28.2 30.0 30.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 32.2 35.5 33.3 5.6 98.8 97.7 28.2 30.0 31.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 31.1 34.6 31.6 5.2 98.6 97.0 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 31.9 35.0 31.8 4.8 96.8 95.2 29.1 30.5 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 31.4 33.3 34.1 6.2 99.6 98.8 27.8 29.8 30.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 32.4 34.6 34.5 5.6 100.0 99.0 29.7 31.0 31.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 33.0 36.3 32.3 5.2 98.3 96.7 28.9 31.2 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 31.0 34.4 35.2 6.1 99.4 98.3 27.7 29.0 30.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 30.5 33.5 31.0 5.6 99.0 97.7 27.0 28.7 29.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 31.7 34.1 35.6 6.1 99.4 98.3 27.5 28.8 31.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 26.4 29.2 28.2 5.0 98.4 96.4 24.1 25.0 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 32.2 34.6 34.9 5.8 99.8 98.5 28.7 29.9 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 31.7 34.5 34.5 5.5 99.0 97.3 27.7 29.4 31.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 31.9 33.9 36.3 7.0 99.7 99.4 28.0 29.0 30.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 31.5 34.1 33.8 6.1 99.6 98.9 27.3 28.9 30.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 32.6 34.2 33.9 5.9 99.8 98.8 29.2 30.3 30.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 31.3 34.9 30.9 5.1 98.3 97.0 28.7 30.1 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 31.8 33.8 34.3 5.8 99.7 99.0 28.3 29.6 31.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 32.1 34.6 32.6 5.3 99.2 97.8 29.4 31.2 31.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 26.0 28.8 29.9 5.4 98.7 97.3 22.9 24.1 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 32.0 33.7 35.3 5.7 99.3 98.0 27.7 29.2 31.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------