***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.07.2017.-27.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 7 93 100 16.3 17.0 20.2 1.9 93.8 89.4 15.5 15.7 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 16.3 16.7 19.6 1.5 88.1 83.6 15.3 15.7 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 18.9 19.4 20.2 1.7 92.4 87.3 17.3 17.7 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 8 92 100 14.5 15.4 17.5 1.6 90.0 86.1 12.6 13.4 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 14.8 15.7 17.7 1.6 91.0 88.0 13.7 14.1 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 13.5 13.8 14.8 0.9 79.2 74.5 12.8 13.1 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 16.5 16.9 19.9 1.6 88.2 84.9 15.3 15.8 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 9.7 10.0 15.0 1.2 86.9 82.2 8.4 8.9 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 3 97 100 16.1 16.8 17.9 1.7 93.2 90.0 15.0 15.4 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 15 85 100 15.9 16.3 15.9 1.3 87.5 83.4 14.9 15.3 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 15.5 16.1 17.0 1.3 87.9 84.3 14.3 14.7 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 13.8 14.2 15.9 1.3 87.3 83.3 12.5 13.1 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 14.6 14.6 14.9 0.7 71.6 69.4 13.7 14.0 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 16.5 16.9 17.2 1.1 85.6 79.7 15.5 16.0 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 17.3 17.9 19.0 1.6 91.8 87.2 15.9 16.3 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 16.5 16.9 16.2 1.1 82.7 79.3 15.2 15.6 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 16.7 17.2 19.3 1.4 86.9 83.1 15.7 16.1 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 14.3 14.5 14.8 1.0 83.1 78.6 13.0 13.8 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 16.1 16.7 19.7 1.6 89.7 84.6 15.2 15.6 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 10.1 10.3 12.7 0.9 82.3 78.2 9.1 9.6 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 6 94 100 15.7 16.3 19.1 1.6 91.1 87.3 14.9 15.1 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 15.7 16.0 19.1 1.2 82.3 79.3 14.8 15.0 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 15.5 15.9 19.8 1.8 93.5 87.8 14.9 15.0 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 16.2 16.6 17.2 1.3 87.7 82.8 15.3 15.7 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 16.1 16.6 18.9 1.8 92.4 88.9 15.0 15.2 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 14.8 15.0 14.7 0.9 78.7 73.9 13.9 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 16.5 17.0 19.5 1.9 93.4 89.4 15.1 15.9 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 14.6 15.6 17.7 1.5 89.0 84.6 13.7 14.0 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 13.8 14.2 14.1 0.9 81.8 77.1 12.4 13.0 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 16.6 17.0 20.1 1.7 90.7 85.5 15.6 15.9 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------