***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.08.2017.-27.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 15.7 15.9 18.6 1.2 74.3 68.2 14.3 14.9 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 15.6 15.7 18.1 0.9 71.8 63.7 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 18.2 18.6 18.7 1.1 72.9 66.3 15.9 17.2 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 13.1 14.2 16.1 1.1 73.3 67.2 11.2 12.8 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 13.6 14.2 16.0 1.0 71.0 65.5 12.5 13.4 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.9 13.9 0.6 64.7 61.1 11.7 12.5 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 15.9 16.1 18.4 1.1 73.4 66.1 14.3 15.0 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 8.4 8.8 13.8 0.8 67.0 62.2 7.1 8.1 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 15.1 16.1 16.1 1.0 72.4 65.7 13.2 14.9 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 14.6 15.4 14.4 0.8 65.6 61.8 13.1 14.4 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 14.1 14.5 15.4 0.9 68.8 64.4 13.0 13.7 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 12.7 12.9 14.4 0.8 68.0 62.4 11.4 12.5 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.7 13.7 13.4 0.4 58.4 57.1 12.5 13.4 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 15.5 15.9 15.7 0.7 64.4 60.4 13.9 15.2 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 16.4 16.5 17.4 1.2 74.7 68.9 14.8 15.8 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 15.1 15.8 14.7 0.8 66.4 62.5 14.4 14.8 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 15.5 16.5 17.8 0.8 69.1 62.5 14.2 15.2 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.8 13.1 13.3 0.6 61.1 58.1 11.5 12.5 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 16.0 16.2 18.2 1.0 71.7 64.3 13.9 15.2 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.9 9.1 11.2 0.5 60.0 57.5 7.9 8.7 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 15.0 15.2 17.6 1.1 73.3 67.0 13.7 14.4 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.7 17.6 0.8 67.6 61.8 13.4 14.0 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 15.1 15.2 18.1 1.1 72.9 66.7 13.3 14.3 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 15.3 15.3 15.5 0.8 64.6 60.6 13.4 15.0 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 15.3 15.4 17.3 1.2 74.0 68.7 13.3 14.3 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.8 14.1 13.5 0.5 62.1 58.7 13.3 13.6 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 16.1 16.6 17.9 1.3 74.6 69.2 13.7 15.0 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 13.6 13.9 16.3 1.1 72.9 67.2 12.5 13.4 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.7 13.0 12.7 0.6 60.4 57.9 11.3 12.3 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 16.5 16.8 18.5 1.0 73.3 65.3 14.0 15.3 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------