***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.08.2017.-20.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 16.1 16.2 18.6 0.5 59.1 56.8 14.9 15.9 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.6 17.9 0.0 53.9 50.4 15.0 15.4 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 18.4 18.7 18.9 0.5 59.6 56.8 17.2 18.1 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 14.4 15.3 16.4 0.6 65.2 58.9 12.4 14.1 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.2 14.6 16.3 0.6 65.2 58.1 13.5 14.0 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 13.5 13.8 14.2 0.3 59.7 55.3 12.5 13.4 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 16.1 16.3 18.2 0.1 56.7 53.0 15.4 15.8 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 9.3 10.0 14.0 0.4 60.7 57.0 8.1 8.8 10.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 15.4 15.9 16.4 0.6 65.5 57.9 14.6 15.0 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.8 14.8 0.4 60.8 55.8 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.0 15.1 15.7 0.6 64.8 58.8 13.8 14.8 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.3 13.4 14.8 0.5 62.5 58.2 12.1 13.1 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.2 13.9 0.2 54.9 52.2 13.4 14.1 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.2 15.9 15.9 0.1 54.7 51.7 14.9 15.9 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 16.7 17.2 17.8 0.8 66.8 61.0 15.8 16.5 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.3 15.1 0.5 63.3 57.6 15.4 15.9 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.3 17.5 -0.2 52.5 48.7 15.7 16.2 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 13.9 13.9 13.7 0.2 55.4 53.2 13.0 13.6 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.7 18.1 0.1 54.9 51.9 14.9 15.5 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.6 11.5 0.1 51.7 51.6 9.1 9.5 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 15.2 15.7 17.8 0.5 61.2 57.2 14.1 15.0 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 15.1 14.9 17.5 -0.1 52.9 49.3 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.4 18.3 0.4 58.2 55.6 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.8 15.9 0.3 56.9 53.7 14.5 15.5 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.6 17.2 0.4 59.8 56.5 15.0 15.3 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.7 14.7 13.9 0.3 55.3 54.5 14.1 14.6 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 16.5 16.6 17.9 0.5 59.4 56.5 15.3 16.3 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 14.1 14.5 16.7 0.7 66.0 59.9 13.1 14.0 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 14.0 14.0 13.1 0.1 54.1 52.0 12.1 13.7 14.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 16.3 16.2 18.4 0.2 56.5 53.4 15.1 16.0 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------