***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.08.2017.-13.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 16.7 17.2 20.7 1.8 83.7 72.7 14.9 16.2 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 16.3 16.5 19.7 0.9 66.8 62.5 14.6 15.3 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 18.4 19.0 20.7 1.5 80.7 70.7 17.5 17.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 14.5 15.1 18.3 1.7 82.0 74.5 12.5 13.3 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 15.4 15.9 18.6 1.7 84.2 74.4 13.5 14.7 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 14.1 14.5 15.8 1.5 83.8 74.8 13.0 13.5 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 16.6 16.7 20.1 1.1 70.7 64.7 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 9.9 10.5 15.8 1.5 81.1 73.1 8.5 8.9 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 16.6 17.1 18.8 1.8 85.0 77.0 14.9 15.9 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 16.3 16.6 16.7 1.5 80.5 72.6 15.0 15.7 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 16.0 16.4 18.1 1.7 85.8 76.3 14.7 15.5 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 14.1 14.4 17.0 1.7 84.1 75.3 12.7 13.6 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 15.2 15.6 16.3 1.4 82.5 72.7 14.1 14.8 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 16.8 16.8 17.7 0.9 70.7 66.0 15.4 16.3 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 17.5 18.6 20.3 2.2 90.3 82.6 16.1 16.4 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 17.0 17.5 17.4 1.6 85.3 75.9 15.2 16.1 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 15.5 16.8 19.2 0.7 64.6 59.1 15.6 16.4 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 14.8 15.2 15.6 1.1 76.3 68.0 13.3 14.0 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 16.6 16.6 19.9 1.1 70.0 64.6 15.1 15.6 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 10.6 10.8 13.6 1.1 77.8 68.9 9.4 10.1 10.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 16.3 16.7 19.9 1.7 82.9 74.7 14.7 15.8 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.6 19.1 0.5 60.2 57.0 14.5 15.1 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 15.9 16.3 20.1 1.4 78.5 69.2 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 16.8 17.1 17.8 1.2 77.3 68.7 15.4 16.1 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 16.7 17.3 19.7 1.8 83.7 73.2 14.9 15.9 16.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 15.2 15.8 16.0 1.6 85.4 75.6 14.3 14.7 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 16.9 18.0 20.1 1.8 83.6 72.5 14.9 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 15.3 16.4 18.8 1.9 85.8 78.5 13.4 14.8 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 13.8 13.8 14.8 1.0 73.5 67.2 12.3 13.1 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 16.9 17.3 20.4 1.3 73.4 66.7 14.8 15.7 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------