***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.07.2017.-06.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 18.1 18.9 22.8 4.2 99.0 98.0 15.3 16.7 17.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 18.0 20.4 22.7 4.2 99.9 98.0 15.0 16.0 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 19.7 22.2 22.7 3.8 99.2 97.6 17.2 18.3 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 15.4 16.4 19.0 2.7 94.7 92.3 12.5 14.4 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 16.9 17.7 20.0 3.2 96.7 95.1 13.7 14.7 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 14.4 14.7 15.2 1.1 76.8 73.7 13.0 13.4 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 18.3 19.8 22.8 4.2 99.6 97.9 15.2 16.3 17.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 5 95 100 10.9 12.4 16.4 2.1 93.0 89.1 8.7 9.6 10.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 17.6 18.4 20.3 3.3 97.9 96.9 14.9 16.3 16.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 4 96 100 17.4 18.4 17.8 2.5 94.3 91.6 15.1 15.9 17.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 16.9 17.9 18.7 2.2 91.3 88.2 14.8 15.5 16.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 14.9 16.3 17.5 2.2 92.1 88.8 13.0 13.8 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 14.9 15.4 16.1 0.8 66.5 65.3 14.5 14.7 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 1 99 100 18.0 18.8 19.4 2.7 97.1 94.1 15.6 16.8 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 3 97 100 18.7 19.6 20.4 2.3 91.4 89.9 16.1 17.0 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 17.5 17.9 17.5 1.6 81.9 80.4 15.3 16.2 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 18.4 20.0 22.6 4.3 100.0 98.7 15.9 16.8 17.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 15.4 16.5 16.7 2.1 93.2 89.9 13.7 14.5 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 17.7 19.2 22.7 4.1 99.9 98.1 15.4 16.4 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 4 96 100 12.3 12.5 14.7 2.1 93.2 89.4 9.8 10.3 11.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 1 99 100 17.4 18.3 21.2 3.1 96.9 95.2 14.9 15.8 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 17.4 19.4 22.1 3.6 99.4 97.2 15.1 15.7 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 17.1 18.9 22.7 4.2 99.8 98.7 14.7 16.1 16.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 1 99 100 17.8 18.5 19.6 2.9 97.1 94.4 15.4 16.6 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 1 99 100 17.8 19.2 21.6 3.8 98.2 96.7 14.7 16.5 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 15.7 15.8 15.3 1.1 73.4 70.6 13.9 14.7 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 18.3 21.0 22.2 4.1 99.0 97.5 14.5 16.1 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 16.0 17.3 18.9 2.2 89.5 87.9 14.2 14.7 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 15.0 15.5 15.8 2.1 92.9 89.5 13.0 13.9 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 18.2 20.0 23.0 4.2 99.9 98.1 15.2 16.5 17.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------