***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2018.-26.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 56.8 76.7 71.0 184.4 86.1 78.6 30.6 43.0 52.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 64.0 79.1 63.7 180.2 83.6 76.4 21.9 48.2 63.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 67.1 98.5 81.0 213.4 89.8 83.3 26.7 32.6 58.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 8 92 100 79.8 99.7 85.2 221.7 87.8 84.7 26.3 40.2 57.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 53.1 77.9 85.4 238.8 92.1 87.1 16.7 25.8 36.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 48.6 57.2 83.9 185.8 83.8 79.0 28.1 35.8 45.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 53.4 58.9 59.8 165.5 80.6 73.0 27.1 42.7 50.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 9 91 100 87.6 144.3 96.9 227.3 92.7 86.8 33.0 48.6 79.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 70.3 106.5 89.1 230.2 92.6 86.4 28.1 32.4 44.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 73.1 114.4 104.1 230.7 93.5 87.5 30.0 44.1 66.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 53.3 96.4 84.4 238.8 92.9 87.2 20.3 32.7 48.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 55.4 74.5 76.2 219.4 89.5 84.0 17.2 27.7 43.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 56.8 67.3 73.8 202.6 86.5 81.5 20.8 26.6 42.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 77.6 113.8 105.8 205.1 88.5 82.8 32.6 54.0 73.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 60.2 87.6 75.2 231.8 90.4 83.4 12.4 23.5 38.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 8 92 100 54.1 74.5 73.2 208.2 86.2 82.2 16.2 27.7 46.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 54.8 66.3 58.6 165.4 81.6 71.9 37.7 45.7 50.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 8 92 100 73.2 103.0 110.9 214.8 91.9 84.9 39.3 42.2 53.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 67.6 79.3 68.7 189.2 85.2 78.4 30.0 43.6 54.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 67.8 93.6 101.9 195.2 91.3 83.6 33.4 45.5 63.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 12 88 100 67.5 90.4 80.5 214.7 89.7 83.9 28.3 41.7 57.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 55.7 66.8 66.1 173.7 83.4 73.6 35.5 41.8 53.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 67.0 95.3 79.3 202.7 87.2 80.9 25.9 37.7 47.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 10 90 100 70.2 100.6 101.7 217.3 90.9 84.6 33.8 47.3 65.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 57.5 68.4 79.4 196.3 87.7 82.2 21.6 42.5 50.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 12 88 100 61.8 81.8 68.3 215.7 88.5 83.8 18.6 28.2 37.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 60.3 76.4 74.0 178.7 83.9 78.1 27.3 46.6 51.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 50.5 86.8 81.4 228.2 88.2 83.4 13.5 21.2 35.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 92.0 122.9 112.4 208.4 91.9 85.2 43.5 63.2 80.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 48.4 70.2 68.2 185.8 84.6 77.7 18.4 29.9 43.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------