***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2018.-26.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 8.4 17.0 15.4 175.7 83.0 62.6 0.0 2.0 6.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 11.9 16.5 14.7 167.7 80.1 62.2 1.6 4.8 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 11.6 17.1 15.4 165.1 79.9 63.6 1.7 3.8 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 17.9 32.8 16.8 205.1 85.4 68.6 0.3 2.5 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 10.0 20.6 15.5 193.4 83.5 66.6 0.7 2.3 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 11.4 17.6 17.8 189.0 82.8 64.8 0.5 5.9 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.8 17.7 14.3 161.7 80.1 59.7 0.5 6.5 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 20.7 28.0 17.8 180.3 81.5 62.1 2.9 11.9 23.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 8.6 16.7 15.2 168.0 81.7 62.7 0.2 2.2 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 6.6 16.3 17.9 167.8 81.2 61.1 1.4 4.0 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 4.8 16.2 14.2 183.7 81.8 63.0 1.3 2.3 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 6.9 11.1 14.6 187.1 82.3 63.6 0.5 2.8 5.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 9.8 15.4 15.4 187.5 83.8 62.6 0.0 2.8 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 20.3 26.8 21.1 159.3 79.0 63.5 3.5 7.6 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 7.7 16.2 15.8 234.4 88.0 68.0 0.4 0.9 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 7.1 17.1 14.9 195.0 83.6 65.2 0.3 2.7 4.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.5 22.6 13.1 148.1 77.4 59.0 3.0 7.1 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 14.9 20.2 21.5 171.0 81.3 65.1 1.5 5.4 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 16.5 21.6 14.9 163.4 79.9 62.3 3.1 9.6 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 16.7 21.9 20.8 160.2 80.1 62.7 1.3 11.1 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 11.0 18.8 15.1 176.7 82.4 63.2 0.5 3.4 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.1 19.3 14.7 146.6 76.0 60.9 3.7 9.8 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 15.5 20.5 15.5 154.4 78.4 62.5 1.2 6.8 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 16.1 23.2 19.2 161.2 79.9 64.7 1.1 7.1 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 9.4 21.0 17.3 187.2 83.3 65.7 0.6 2.5 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 10.0 20.2 13.3 192.1 85.9 66.3 0.2 3.8 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 17.4 28.8 17.0 181.1 82.9 63.4 0.4 5.8 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 10.6 23.3 15.8 215.6 85.6 65.2 0.0 1.7 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 21.0 29.1 21.7 167.5 81.1 65.0 1.0 11.1 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 9.3 12.3 15.4 170.4 81.4 60.8 0.9 5.0 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------