***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2018.-19.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 5.6 11.4 15.0 147.2 76.1 62.6 0.1 4.1 9.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.3 13.7 12.8 134.5 74.2 60.1 0.8 3.5 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.2 14.4 14.7 148.8 74.7 60.9 2.3 4.9 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 8.8 17.1 16.2 174.3 80.7 63.5 0.8 1.3 6.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 1.8 5.2 14.2 165.0 79.1 62.8 0.0 1.0 2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 3.4 9.6 14.6 133.6 73.4 56.9 0.0 1.2 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 1.9 6.7 12.4 126.6 72.1 57.9 1.1 3.5 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 9.9 17.0 14.8 145.6 73.7 60.4 2.0 7.1 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 5.0 13.2 14.2 149.4 75.8 60.3 0.2 2.7 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.8 17.9 15.6 142.2 73.1 59.7 0.1 7.7 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 2.4 6.0 11.3 146.3 74.8 59.3 0.0 1.0 4.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 3.8 8.6 12.0 144.9 75.3 59.7 0.0 2.0 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 2.7 4.3 10.8 115.3 71.8 53.3 0.0 1.1 3.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.2 19.3 16.8 121.0 69.9 58.2 5.0 9.9 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 5.1 11.8 14.5 185.9 82.3 63.2 0.0 0.6 3.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 2.0 6.1 11.8 141.2 74.3 59.5 0.1 0.6 3.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.7 7.8 12.6 133.9 73.8 57.8 0.7 3.1 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 7.6 12.6 18.5 141.8 71.9 60.9 1.2 5.7 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 5.4 9.9 12.9 132.9 73.5 59.7 1.3 3.4 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 8.4 12.8 17.3 130.8 69.2 57.7 2.6 6.7 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.8 15.0 13.2 140.6 75.6 58.0 0.1 2.6 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 4.5 10.1 13.0 131.9 72.2 59.3 0.9 2.8 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.0 11.0 13.3 125.6 71.8 58.3 0.9 5.1 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 12.8 17.4 16.9 138.9 73.0 61.4 2.7 10.6 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 8.5 13.4 15.9 152.7 78.8 64.2 0.2 1.8 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 4.2 4.6 10.1 134.3 74.9 62.8 0.0 0.9 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.1 12.7 15.5 141.1 76.3 63.0 1.0 5.4 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 2.9 6.4 14.5 166.4 79.3 61.5 0.1 1.9 4.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 10.0 17.7 20.0 142.1 72.1 62.7 1.9 7.6 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 5.6 13.5 13.4 137.1 74.0 61.0 1.5 3.0 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------