***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2018.-12.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 17.1 21.8 14.0 150.2 77.2 64.7 0.3 8.4 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 15.2 23.9 14.8 181.3 81.0 66.7 2.1 4.7 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 17.8 24.4 17.1 178.7 81.9 71.2 0.9 5.4 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 22.7 37.7 16.7 187.9 82.3 73.5 3.1 10.0 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 16.3 19.2 15.8 178.3 80.8 70.9 0.4 8.6 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 21.3 26.3 18.1 156.6 79.2 69.4 2.7 8.4 16.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.6 17.4 12.2 149.7 77.9 58.2 1.9 4.5 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 23.1 26.7 16.9 183.1 83.0 68.2 12.0 17.8 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 18.9 21.8 15.1 160.2 77.6 66.2 4.8 9.8 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 21.9 27.2 16.1 164.5 80.4 65.3 6.8 14.0 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 21.1 25.7 15.8 168.9 80.2 68.7 4.7 12.4 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 17.2 21.0 15.5 187.8 83.0 69.6 2.3 9.7 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 14.1 20.4 13.4 153.6 80.0 62.7 1.6 5.3 9.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 15.8 18.1 18.4 141.0 74.9 62.0 4.9 9.5 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 19.4 33.0 15.7 188.7 84.7 72.5 3.3 7.7 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 14.7 17.5 14.8 162.9 81.9 69.1 2.4 8.5 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 15.5 21.4 14.2 165.7 79.5 62.0 2.4 7.2 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 23.8 28.6 22.3 185.5 83.6 71.4 5.6 10.9 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 15.3 23.2 14.2 169.1 79.9 65.1 1.9 4.7 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 13.3 23.8 17.2 153.1 76.0 63.7 5.5 10.4 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 16.3 17.8 12.9 136.4 74.8 60.3 5.7 8.6 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 15.5 19.1 14.6 158.0 76.9 61.9 3.6 8.8 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 12.8 17.3 15.0 157.4 78.9 65.7 1.9 5.9 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 31.4 41.2 21.5 182.6 82.8 71.8 5.1 12.9 20.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 18.2 22.7 16.3 164.3 78.0 71.4 2.5 8.8 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 17.2 23.2 20.2 226.2 86.1 78.1 2.2 7.4 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 15.6 19.4 15.1 147.5 76.4 66.6 3.2 6.7 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 15.6 24.5 15.2 183.8 83.2 72.9 0.8 4.4 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 24.9 32.2 23.9 181.2 81.5 71.9 7.3 17.5 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 9.4 11.8 13.9 163.2 78.7 63.1 2.2 5.6 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------