***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2018.-05.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 19.9 29.0 26.5 260.4 90.4 82.3 1.6 8.0 17.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 24.0 43.8 21.5 240.1 89.2 77.5 3.3 14.4 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 12 88 100 19.3 38.8 33.7 365.6 93.3 86.4 1.7 6.7 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 21.4 47.8 35.4 295.7 93.0 86.8 1.5 6.8 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 19.4 50.1 39.9 389.7 95.4 90.7 1.6 6.4 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 19.3 31.6 33.3 247.5 87.5 81.9 1.9 6.6 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 20.2 25.6 20.9 223.5 87.4 75.8 0.7 10.9 21.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 29.1 73.2 47.4 343.2 95.5 89.3 1.7 7.3 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 5 95 100 20.6 42.5 44.7 416.3 96.9 91.2 1.4 7.3 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 24.5 47.9 54.4 396.5 96.9 91.9 3.4 10.6 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 20.1 53.1 43.1 417.8 95.6 91.1 0.3 3.0 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 6 94 100 20.6 37.8 34.2 328.7 93.5 87.3 0.4 4.0 11.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 17.4 29.5 34.2 338.8 93.1 87.5 1.1 4.6 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 34.7 68.5 49.5 423.2 97.4 87.9 0.5 3.8 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 16.5 27.3 29.2 305.4 90.7 84.3 0.0 2.4 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 8 92 100 12.5 41.8 31.8 319.0 91.6 86.2 2.3 6.5 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 22.0 32.2 18.6 218.3 86.6 73.7 2.3 6.7 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 3 97 100 22.0 50.7 48.5 348.4 96.2 90.0 2.2 7.6 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 25.1 48.8 26.6 299.2 92.2 81.1 1.5 8.0 18.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 21.3 34.5 46.5 324.2 95.6 90.3 4.6 9.7 14.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 24.9 36.5 39.3 390.2 96.3 89.5 0.3 3.5 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 16.1 28.2 23.7 267.0 89.8 76.2 1.7 5.5 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 20.2 58.4 35.5 396.4 96.7 85.9 0.4 3.0 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 6 94 100 19.9 41.5 44.1 402.5 97.2 89.6 2.3 9.4 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 16.5 32.0 29.9 274.3 90.8 84.6 0.3 4.1 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 15.8 37.4 24.8 300.8 90.8 85.4 1.7 7.7 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 20.6 35.6 26.4 244.2 89.4 81.4 0.8 2.8 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 15.1 32.2 35.9 315.6 92.3 86.4 0.4 4.8 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 3 97 100 35.2 59.3 46.8 339.0 96.2 89.8 3.8 15.3 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 17.5 24.8 25.4 272.9 90.4 80.5 1.6 4.2 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------