***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2018.-26.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 28.3 28.3 28.5 -1.1 34.0 35.1 28.3 29.5 30.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 29.3 28.5 29.0 -0.6 43.4 42.9 28.2 28.9 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 28.0 27.8 28.4 -1.4 31.9 32.4 27.9 29.0 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 20.9 20.4 25.8 -1.7 24.9 27.2 21.5 22.6 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 86 14 0 100 28.1 28.1 26.0 -2.1 20.2 21.9 28.6 29.7 31.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 26.5 26.1 23.6 -1.9 19.9 22.1 27.3 28.5 30.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 29.2 28.8 29.2 -0.4 46.9 46.6 27.9 29.0 29.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 80 20 0 100 16.1 16.0 23.9 -2.1 19.7 21.4 16.7 17.6 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 86 14 0 100 27.4 27.4 26.4 -2.0 21.3 22.9 28.3 28.8 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 82 18 0 100 27.2 27.3 24.7 -2.1 20.6 22.2 27.9 28.5 30.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 85 15 0 100 27.6 27.5 25.8 -2.1 20.1 21.8 28.3 29.2 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 84 16 0 100 26.7 26.7 25.1 -2.2 18.9 20.9 27.6 28.5 29.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 92 8 0 100 27.5 27.4 24.9 -2.3 17.1 19.2 28.4 29.9 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 27.6 27.4 26.4 -1.4 30.7 31.7 27.7 28.8 29.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 28.8 29.2 27.6 -1.2 32.3 32.9 29.2 30.0 30.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 86 14 0 100 28.5 28.3 25.5 -2.1 19.6 21.3 29.0 30.5 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 28.7 28.4 29.4 0.1 51.9 52.7 27.4 28.4 29.2 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 26.5 26.5 24.2 -1.9 23.6 25.0 26.9 27.9 29.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 29.0 27.9 28.8 -0.9 39.2 39.0 27.9 28.7 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 22.4 22.2 21.9 -2.0 18.4 22.2 22.8 24.0 25.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 76 24 0 100 27.5 27.6 27.5 -1.8 24.4 25.6 28.2 29.0 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 29.0 28.8 29.1 -0.1 51.6 50.7 28.1 28.6 29.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 27.9 27.7 28.3 -1.2 34.8 35.4 27.7 28.9 29.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 27.2 27.3 26.2 -1.7 26.7 27.9 27.5 28.5 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 28.1 28.2 26.7 -1.5 27.9 29.1 28.3 29.3 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 84 16 0 100 27.3 27.3 25.0 -2.0 20.8 22.5 27.9 29.7 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 29.1 28.0 27.8 -1.1 35.5 35.7 27.9 28.6 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 28.6 28.3 26.3 -1.7 25.4 26.8 29.0 30.0 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 21.9 21.6 23.4 -1.8 23.8 25.4 21.9 23.5 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 29.3 28.2 28.8 -0.9 40.0 39.3 27.8 29.0 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------