***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2018.-26.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 27.4 27.2 27.3 -1.5 35.1 36.7 27.2 28.6 29.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 26.9 27.8 27.7 -1.0 40.0 40.6 27.3 28.4 28.9 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 26.8 27.6 27.4 -1.6 33.9 36.0 27.5 28.4 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 19.9 20.8 25.1 -1.9 30.4 32.8 20.9 21.7 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 27.3 27.4 25.0 -2.4 26.5 29.2 28.1 29.6 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 25.8 26.5 22.8 -2.1 26.0 29.3 27.0 28.0 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 28.7 27.4 27.8 -0.8 41.7 42.1 26.9 28.3 28.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 15.5 15.3 23.3 -2.3 24.9 29.6 16.1 17.0 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 26.5 26.6 25.1 -2.4 26.4 29.3 27.7 28.5 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 26.7 26.5 23.9 -2.3 25.9 29.8 27.3 28.7 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 27.1 26.7 24.8 -2.3 26.1 29.8 27.6 29.1 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 26.4 26.3 24.5 -2.4 24.8 29.1 26.8 28.9 29.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 26.9 27.6 23.7 -2.6 23.4 27.3 28.0 29.1 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 26.6 26.5 25.1 -1.7 31.9 34.5 26.6 28.0 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 27.7 27.5 26.3 -1.5 32.5 36.3 27.6 29.5 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 27.9 28.2 24.5 -2.3 25.5 29.3 28.8 30.3 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 26.3 27.5 27.8 -0.6 44.2 44.2 26.2 28.0 29.0 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 25.9 25.9 23.5 -2.0 27.5 32.0 26.0 27.4 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 26.4 27.1 27.6 -1.2 38.2 39.2 26.6 27.9 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 21.7 21.9 21.0 -2.1 26.1 30.3 22.2 23.2 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 26.8 26.7 26.2 -2.1 28.8 31.1 27.6 28.6 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 28.8 28.0 27.6 -0.7 43.3 43.8 27.0 28.4 28.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 26.5 27.2 27.3 -1.4 35.7 37.4 27.1 27.8 29.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 26.3 26.0 25.1 -1.8 29.6 33.3 26.4 27.8 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 27.0 27.0 25.4 -1.9 31.2 32.6 27.4 28.7 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 27.4 27.6 24.6 -1.9 28.7 32.2 28.0 29.1 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 26.8 27.2 26.5 -1.5 35.0 36.5 27.0 28.4 29.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 27.4 28.0 25.4 -1.9 29.9 33.0 28.4 29.3 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 21.4 21.5 22.6 -2.0 28.6 32.3 21.8 22.5 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 26.5 27.5 27.6 -1.2 38.1 39.2 27.1 28.0 29.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------