***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2018.-19.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 31.0 29.8 28.6 -0.9 41.8 41.4 28.8 30.6 31.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 30.6 29.6 29.1 -0.4 46.9 46.8 28.2 30.2 31.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 30.7 28.7 28.8 -1.0 40.1 40.9 28.1 30.3 31.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 21.0 22.1 26.5 -1.2 36.9 37.3 21.5 23.1 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 28.7 28.6 26.4 -1.6 33.5 34.0 28.5 30.9 31.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 27.3 28.1 24.2 -1.3 34.8 35.5 27.9 29.3 30.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 30.1 29.7 29.3 -0.2 49.9 49.0 28.2 29.7 30.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 16.3 17.1 24.8 -1.4 35.9 35.7 16.5 18.4 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 27.9 28.0 26.6 -1.5 33.7 34.5 28.0 30.0 30.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 27.7 27.4 25.4 -1.5 35.5 35.6 27.2 29.8 30.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 28.2 28.3 26.2 -1.5 35.6 34.8 27.9 30.6 31.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 27.4 27.5 26.0 -1.5 33.8 34.5 27.5 29.6 30.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 28.0 28.4 25.1 -1.8 29.5 32.0 28.8 30.3 32.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 30.1 29.1 26.5 -0.9 42.2 41.5 27.9 29.6 30.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 31.1 29.7 27.6 -0.9 41.2 40.4 29.0 30.7 31.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 28.7 29.3 25.9 -1.6 33.0 34.0 29.3 31.1 32.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 29.6 29.4 29.3 0.1 52.7 52.1 27.3 29.2 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 29.3 27.8 25.0 -1.2 39.4 39.1 26.9 29.0 29.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 27.5 28.7 29.0 -0.6 44.9 44.7 27.6 29.5 30.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 22.6 24.0 22.5 -1.3 37.6 37.6 22.9 24.8 25.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 28.3 28.0 27.6 -1.4 35.1 36.3 27.8 30.3 31.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 30.2 29.8 29.1 0.0 52.0 51.2 27.8 29.8 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 28.1 29.1 28.6 -0.8 43.2 42.5 27.6 30.2 30.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 29.7 28.1 26.5 -1.1 39.9 39.6 27.1 29.2 30.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 28.1 28.4 26.7 -1.3 37.5 37.1 28.3 30.1 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 30.8 28.4 26.1 -1.2 35.5 38.4 28.0 30.2 31.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 30.4 29.0 27.8 -0.9 42.8 41.6 28.1 30.0 31.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 31.4 30.0 26.8 -1.2 37.7 37.2 29.0 30.9 31.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 22.0 23.3 24.1 -1.1 40.4 40.0 22.4 24.4 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 30.4 29.2 29.0 -0.6 44.4 44.8 27.9 30.0 30.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------