***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2018.-12.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 27.7 28.4 29.2 -1.2 36.1 37.7 28.1 28.9 30.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 29.5 28.8 29.7 -0.8 43.9 43.8 28.1 29.1 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 27.5 27.3 29.1 -1.5 33.2 36.0 27.3 28.8 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 19.8 19.9 26.3 -1.8 26.2 30.6 20.3 21.7 22.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 27.5 27.9 26.7 -2.1 24.0 27.7 28.3 29.4 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 74 26 0 100 25.9 25.7 24.2 -2.0 21.4 25.5 26.7 28.2 29.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 29.3 29.0 29.9 -0.5 49.0 46.6 27.6 29.1 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 15.9 15.8 24.5 -2.2 23.8 27.1 16.5 17.2 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 27.4 27.3 27.3 -2.0 25.5 29.5 27.7 28.7 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 27.3 26.8 25.4 -2.1 25.4 29.0 27.9 28.5 29.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 27.1 27.7 26.6 -2.2 24.2 27.6 28.3 28.7 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 26.3 26.2 25.6 -2.4 22.6 25.4 27.4 28.0 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 27.4 27.1 25.7 -2.5 19.5 23.0 28.4 29.1 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 28.8 27.7 27.3 -1.4 36.4 37.7 27.5 28.3 29.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 28.5 28.1 28.4 -1.4 29.9 34.5 28.4 30.0 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 27.9 27.8 26.1 -2.3 21.8 25.4 29.0 29.9 31.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 28.7 28.9 30.0 0.0 57.3 51.5 27.3 28.4 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 26.3 26.6 24.9 -1.9 28.1 31.9 26.7 27.5 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 29.1 27.7 29.4 -1.1 39.2 41.0 27.3 28.7 29.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 22.0 22.5 22.6 -2.0 25.0 28.1 23.0 23.2 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 27.5 27.4 28.3 -1.9 26.9 31.3 27.6 29.1 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 29.4 29.3 29.8 -0.1 54.8 50.5 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 29.1 27.5 29.1 -1.2 37.5 39.4 27.4 28.5 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 26.9 27.1 27.1 -1.6 30.5 34.3 27.2 28.1 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 28.0 27.7 27.5 -1.6 29.0 33.1 28.2 29.2 30.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 27.3 26.7 25.4 -2.3 20.0 24.8 28.2 29.0 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 29.2 28.1 28.5 -1.1 37.5 38.6 27.8 28.7 30.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 28.1 27.8 26.9 -1.8 25.2 29.6 28.3 30.0 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 21.8 21.9 24.2 -1.8 29.7 32.2 21.9 22.8 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 29.3 28.3 29.5 -1.0 39.7 41.0 27.8 28.8 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------