***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2018.-05.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 30.3 29.0 28.8 -0.9 38.3 39.4 28.8 30.0 31.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 29.6 29.2 29.6 -0.3 46.8 48.1 28.1 29.3 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 30.2 28.4 28.4 -1.4 33.8 34.6 28.4 29.7 31.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 21.3 21.7 25.2 -1.7 29.5 29.2 21.9 23.8 24.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 27.8 28.3 25.7 -2.3 23.9 24.4 29.1 30.5 31.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 90 10 0 100 25.8 26.4 23.3 -2.2 21.3 23.0 28.2 29.5 30.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 93 7 100 29.7 29.6 29.9 0.1 51.2 52.6 27.9 29.6 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 95 5 0 100 15.4 16.2 23.1 -2.6 19.6 20.4 17.8 18.8 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 27.6 28.0 26.6 -2.2 25.4 25.9 29.1 30.0 31.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 85 15 0 100 26.6 27.5 24.2 -2.5 22.3 22.7 28.7 29.6 30.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 84 16 0 100 26.8 27.3 25.8 -2.5 21.4 22.4 28.6 30.3 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 94 6 0 100 25.7 26.4 24.3 -2.7 19.5 20.1 28.3 29.6 30.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 86 14 0 100 27.0 27.4 25.2 -2.5 19.7 21.2 29.4 30.5 31.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 29.8 27.8 26.7 -1.6 33.6 32.5 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 31.4 30.0 28.3 -1.1 33.8 34.9 29.9 31.1 32.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 87 13 0 100 27.9 28.4 25.4 -2.4 21.2 22.3 29.7 30.9 32.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 29.2 29.8 30.3 0.9 63.2 62.5 27.2 28.9 30.1 30 Palic 37000G16 80 20 0 100 25.8 26.5 23.4 -2.4 23.4 23.9 27.2 28.7 29.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 29.2 28.2 29.1 -0.8 40.6 42.1 27.6 28.8 30.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 95 5 0 100 21.2 21.7 21.3 -2.6 20.4 20.7 24.2 25.0 25.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 27.8 28.4 27.7 -1.8 29.5 29.7 29.0 30.2 31.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 90 10 100 29.2 30.0 29.9 0.5 57.9 58.1 27.6 28.9 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 29.3 27.8 28.5 -1.2 35.8 37.2 27.7 28.8 31.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 27.0 27.6 26.1 -2.1 28.7 28.2 27.9 28.7 30.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 30.8 29.3 27.2 -1.3 34.0 35.0 29.2 30.1 31.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 95 5 0 100 26.7 27.0 23.8 -2.7 17.4 18.8 28.8 30.3 31.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 30.1 28.9 28.3 -0.8 39.9 41.2 28.4 29.8 30.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 28.8 29.9 26.2 -1.8 27.6 27.8 30.1 31.0 32.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 86 14 0 100 21.0 22.0 22.7 -2.4 23.7 23.6 23.0 24.6 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 29.7 28.7 29.2 -0.7 41.0 42.8 28.3 29.4 30.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------