***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2018.-26.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.1 17.3 -0.5 44.4 44.3 14.4 15.3 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.0 17.3 -0.2 48.4 48.0 14.4 15.0 15.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.7 16.9 17.4 -0.5 43.1 43.3 16.5 17.4 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.6 12.0 14.8 -0.6 39.5 42.3 11.8 13.3 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.1 14.5 -0.7 36.5 39.6 12.8 13.4 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 13.0 12.3 12.9 -0.6 36.5 40.3 12.2 12.8 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.0 17.5 -0.2 47.6 48.1 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.5 7.8 12.6 -0.5 40.9 42.2 7.5 8.1 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 13.4 13.9 14.6 -0.7 35.5 39.4 13.8 14.8 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 13.7 14.0 13.3 -0.6 39.1 40.9 13.9 14.6 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.3 13.6 14.1 -0.6 39.8 40.7 13.3 13.9 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 12.5 11.9 13.2 -0.5 40.7 41.9 11.6 12.2 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 12.3 13.0 12.6 -0.6 39.5 39.7 12.6 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 14.1 14.5 14.8 -0.6 36.4 42.0 14.3 15.2 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 14.6 15.4 16.2 -0.4 42.4 44.5 14.9 15.8 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 14.0 14.9 13.5 -0.6 40.9 40.4 14.4 15.0 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.5 17.2 0.0 50.8 50.9 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 11.7 12.2 12.5 -0.5 39.2 42.2 12.0 12.8 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 15.4 14.8 17.2 -0.3 47.3 46.8 14.1 14.9 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 7.8 8.5 10.4 -0.5 39.3 41.6 8.4 8.7 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 14.7 13.9 16.1 -0.7 37.1 39.8 13.7 14.5 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 14.5 14.1 17.0 -0.1 49.7 49.6 13.7 14.1 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.2 17.0 -0.4 44.5 45.0 13.5 14.3 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 13.7 14.5 14.6 -0.5 39.4 42.2 14.1 14.9 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 14.8 13.7 15.8 -0.6 40.1 42.2 13.6 14.4 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 13.0 13.5 12.7 -0.4 42.5 44.1 13.3 13.8 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 15.3 14.7 16.5 -0.5 43.9 44.3 14.1 14.8 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 13.6 13.0 15.0 -0.6 39.7 41.9 12.8 13.3 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 11.5 11.7 11.9 -0.6 37.1 40.6 11.4 12.4 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.0 17.5 -0.3 47.3 46.6 14.5 15.2 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------