***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2018.-19.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 16.2 16.2 18.6 0.2 55.6 55.5 15.0 16.1 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.9 18.6 0.4 59.3 58.2 15.0 15.3 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 18.0 18.0 18.7 0.1 54.0 53.0 17.3 17.7 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 14.5 14.3 16.1 0.0 51.6 51.6 12.6 14.3 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.3 14.0 15.7 -0.1 49.5 49.7 13.3 14.0 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 13.5 13.3 13.9 -0.2 45.6 46.5 12.5 13.4 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 16.1 16.3 18.8 0.5 59.4 58.6 15.4 15.9 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 9.0 8.9 13.7 0.0 52.7 52.6 8.1 8.7 10.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 15.4 15.3 15.9 -0.1 51.6 50.5 14.7 15.2 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 15.6 15.5 14.5 0.0 51.9 51.7 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 15.0 14.8 15.3 -0.1 49.6 50.1 14.2 14.8 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 13.3 13.2 14.4 0.0 51.6 51.5 12.5 13.1 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 14.1 13.8 13.7 -0.2 47.8 47.4 13.4 13.8 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 16.0 16.0 16.1 0.1 53.0 53.1 15.1 15.8 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 16.6 16.3 17.4 0.1 49.0 51.5 15.8 16.4 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.7 14.7 -0.1 47.0 48.6 15.3 15.8 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.7 18.6 0.6 64.2 61.3 15.8 16.2 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 13.7 13.8 13.7 0.1 53.2 52.4 12.7 13.6 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 15.9 15.9 18.5 0.3 57.6 56.2 15.1 15.8 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 9.8 9.7 11.4 -0.1 52.2 50.8 9.2 9.6 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 15.4 15.3 17.4 -0.1 51.2 51.0 14.3 15.3 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 15.0 15.2 18.4 0.5 63.1 59.4 14.3 14.7 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 15.1 15.0 18.2 0.1 56.0 53.7 14.6 14.9 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 15.7 15.8 15.8 0.1 53.5 52.8 14.6 15.6 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 15.7 15.6 17.1 0.1 52.1 53.9 15.0 15.6 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.8 14.7 13.8 0.1 51.7 52.1 14.2 14.7 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 16.0 15.8 17.9 0.2 55.1 55.9 15.3 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 14.1 13.8 16.3 0.0 48.5 50.1 13.3 13.9 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 13.3 13.0 13.0 -0.1 51.5 50.4 12.3 13.0 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 16.1 16.3 18.8 0.3 58.0 56.5 15.3 15.9 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------