***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2018.-05.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 17.8 18.0 20.5 1.7 83.8 81.3 15.6 16.4 17.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 18.0 18.6 20.9 2.3 88.0 87.4 14.6 15.9 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 19.9 20.4 20.6 1.6 80.7 80.1 17.3 18.3 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 8 92 100 15.4 15.8 18.2 1.6 81.8 80.4 12.6 14.3 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 16.2 16.8 18.6 1.6 82.5 81.3 13.9 14.8 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 14.8 15.2 15.8 1.5 84.7 83.5 12.8 13.8 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 1 99 100 18.0 18.4 21.0 2.3 85.6 86.1 15.0 16.5 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 10.7 11.9 16.2 1.9 91.6 90.0 8.6 9.3 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 1 99 100 17.6 18.1 19.1 2.0 91.2 90.1 15.1 15.8 16.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 17.6 17.8 17.3 2.0 92.6 91.1 15.2 15.6 17.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 3 97 100 16.9 17.7 18.4 1.7 89.1 87.6 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 15.0 15.2 17.1 1.6 82.8 82.9 13.2 13.7 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 1 99 100 16.1 17.2 17.5 2.0 92.8 91.3 14.0 14.9 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 18.0 18.5 19.0 2.2 92.8 91.2 15.4 16.2 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 18.8 19.7 20.2 1.8 90.4 89.1 16.3 16.9 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 18.0 18.3 17.7 1.6 85.9 84.7 15.3 16.1 16.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 18.4 19.8 21.2 2.9 93.8 92.7 15.8 17.0 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 2 98 100 15.5 16.1 16.6 2.0 89.7 88.7 13.7 14.3 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 17.6 18.0 20.8 2.1 86.5 85.4 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 3 97 100 11.6 12.1 14.7 2.0 89.5 89.1 9.9 10.5 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 17.6 17.8 19.9 1.6 84.2 83.4 14.9 15.9 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 17.4 18.1 21.2 2.7 91.4 91.0 14.6 15.5 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 6 94 100 17.0 17.4 20.5 1.9 85.4 83.9 14.7 16.1 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 1 99 100 17.6 18.1 18.8 2.0 90.1 88.8 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 17.4 17.6 19.4 1.4 77.5 76.5 14.9 16.2 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 3 97 100 16.0 17.0 16.3 1.8 90.1 88.6 13.9 14.5 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 17.7 18.1 19.9 1.6 81.9 80.0 14.9 15.9 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 16.0 16.6 18.5 1.5 82.6 81.6 14.6 14.9 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 2 98 100 14.9 15.6 16.0 2.1 91.4 90.3 12.7 13.8 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 18.2 18.5 20.9 2.0 83.6 83.5 15.0 16.4 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------