***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2012.-26.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 26.9 74.6 52.2 44.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 31.6 37.2 25.5 68.1 43.1 40.2 21.9 48.2 63.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 40.7 32.6 28.3 78.0 50.1 44.7 26.7 32.6 58.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 50.5 35.2 26.6 72.7 44.6 40.5 26.3 40.2 57.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 32.2 26.6 27.7 75.0 51.3 44.0 16.7 25.8 36.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 24.0 36.7 34.1 76.0 55.5 42.4 28.1 35.8 45.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 46.1 39.6 28.5 74.6 47.7 44.8 27.1 42.7 50.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 35.4 51.7 29.3 74.4 52.2 41.3 33.0 48.6 79.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 22.4 33.0 27.6 69.3 52.4 41.9 28.1 32.4 44.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 29.9 48.1 31.5 72.3 53.0 41.7 30.0 44.1 66.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 24.5 33.2 23.7 71.4 51.8 41.9 20.3 32.7 48.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 17.2 30.4 22.7 73.7 52.3 41.9 17.2 27.7 43.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 15.2 28.8 25.7 71.7 54.4 41.3 20.8 26.6 42.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 36.7 40.4 32.2 69.6 42.6 38.2 32.6 54.0 73.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 14.1 20.2 22.0 71.6 46.5 40.2 12.4 23.5 38.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 17.7 30.8 24.3 70.9 51.2 40.9 16.2 27.7 46.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 34.0 40.6 24.2 64.0 41.4 38.3 37.7 45.7 50.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 32.1 42.4 37.0 73.1 50.6 40.3 39.3 42.2 53.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 28.9 41.8 24.9 67.2 42.6 39.1 30.0 43.6 54.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 30.4 50.9 40.3 80.0 52.4 41.2 33.4 45.5 63.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 47.8 42.4 26.2 73.8 52.9 44.3 28.3 41.7 57.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 46.4 38.8 25.6 65.9 42.3 38.6 35.5 41.8 53.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 46.4 36.5 25.8 68.2 43.9 39.0 25.9 37.7 47.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 37.0 42.7 32.1 70.4 46.0 39.4 33.8 47.3 65.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 46.9 42.0 29.4 73.8 48.2 41.4 21.6 42.5 50.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 15.4 28.7 22.0 73.9 51.1 41.5 18.6 28.2 37.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 29.9 46.0 29.3 71.1 48.8 41.0 27.3 46.6 51.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 15.4 18.0 24.7 73.2 47.5 41.1 13.5 21.2 35.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 44.3 63.0 38.1 75.1 49.8 39.7 43.5 63.2 80.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 35.7 29.5 28.2 76.0 48.3 44.3 18.4 29.9 43.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------