***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2012.-26.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.4 99.8 73.7 46.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.4 12.6 6.4 96.3 69.3 46.9 1.6 4.8 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 1.6 12.0 6.7 110.3 71.2 50.2 1.7 3.8 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 7.4 16.0 5.9 86.3 70.8 49.8 0.3 2.5 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.1 7.7 6.4 97.6 71.8 51.1 0.7 2.3 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.7 10.6 7.1 83.8 69.7 49.7 0.5 5.9 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.0 13.1 6.3 92.5 68.5 46.7 0.5 6.5 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 15.0 25.4 7.3 120.8 75.7 51.2 2.9 11.9 23.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 1.0 10.9 6.9 102.9 73.4 50.5 0.2 2.2 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 6.7 14.6 7.9 114.2 73.4 50.2 1.4 4.0 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 4.9 12.5 5.7 103.4 73.8 49.8 1.3 2.3 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 4.2 8.5 5.4 113.8 76.7 50.7 0.5 2.8 5.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.3 13.6 6.1 98.4 78.0 51.5 0.0 2.8 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.0 22.2 9.1 114.8 66.8 50.3 3.5 7.6 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 3.1 6.5 4.7 74.5 70.3 46.9 0.4 0.9 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 4.3 7.0 5.5 88.4 73.1 49.3 0.3 2.7 4.3 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.9 16.7 6.3 89.7 65.8 46.1 3.0 7.1 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 2.6 15.7 9.7 122.9 72.3 50.8 1.5 5.4 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.4 15.5 6.5 101.5 68.9 47.7 3.1 9.6 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 13.3 19.4 10.6 131.3 74.9 51.9 1.3 11.1 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 1.5 10.0 6.2 100.8 75.1 50.8 0.5 3.4 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 3.9 17.2 6.9 95.2 67.2 46.7 3.7 9.8 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.0 15.8 6.9 108.4 67.8 48.2 1.2 6.8 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.4 12.7 8.5 116.6 69.8 50.5 1.1 7.1 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 5.1 8.4 7.1 94.7 71.7 46.8 0.6 2.5 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 6.1 14.0 4.9 111.1 78.2 51.7 0.2 3.8 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 2.4 15.5 7.0 93.8 71.0 44.9 0.4 5.8 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 4.5 11.0 5.3 80.5 69.8 48.6 0.0 1.7 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 14.8 20.8 10.5 129.2 73.9 51.5 1.0 11.1 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.4 10.8 6.6 101.9 70.3 48.0 0.9 5.0 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------