***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2012.-19.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 6.3 66.5 58.1 43.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.0 4.5 6.3 66.9 58.4 47.5 0.8 3.5 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.6 8.6 6.9 77.7 62.3 47.0 2.3 4.9 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 0.5 4.5 5.7 72.3 59.6 41.3 0.8 1.3 6.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 1.9 1.9 6.7 80.4 63.8 45.4 0.0 1.0 2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 0.4 4.1 6.8 60.8 60.9 37.9 0.0 1.2 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 5.2 4.2 6.4 63.6 56.6 46.7 1.1 3.5 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 3.0 14.4 8.6 92.4 67.3 44.6 2.0 7.1 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 1.2 6.1 7.2 78.2 61.9 42.5 0.2 2.7 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 3.3 14.2 8.8 85.5 63.2 43.2 0.1 7.7 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 0.4 4.6 6.1 84.9 67.5 43.3 0.0 1.0 4.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 0.8 5.4 6.3 88.1 69.8 44.3 0.0 2.0 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 0.4 3.4 6.2 70.9 65.0 39.7 0.0 1.1 3.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.6 16.8 9.2 82.2 63.0 46.4 5.0 9.9 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 0.2 3.2 4.5 74.3 64.7 40.0 0.0 0.6 3.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 0.2 3.0 5.8 77.7 66.6 40.8 0.1 0.6 3.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 4.5 3.7 5.9 61.2 57.2 46.5 0.7 3.1 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 2.5 9.9 11.2 90.0 61.5 44.0 1.2 5.7 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 5.4 5.1 6.3 70.6 60.9 47.2 1.3 3.4 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 2.8 11.3 13.6 108.3 66.9 45.9 2.6 6.7 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 1.3 8.7 6.5 77.0 59.7 44.6 0.1 2.6 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.8 6.1 5.9 60.4 56.6 45.3 0.9 2.8 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.3 9.0 6.6 75.1 61.5 45.9 0.9 5.1 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.9 11.5 9.3 84.8 60.7 45.0 2.7 10.6 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 0.8 3.3 6.8 67.6 54.5 39.6 0.2 1.8 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 0.4 3.9 5.1 74.1 66.7 41.8 0.0 0.9 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.6 6.8 6.9 63.8 54.8 40.5 1.0 5.4 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 0.7 4.2 5.2 76.8 63.8 41.5 0.1 1.9 4.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 3.5 11.4 12.2 97.7 61.9 44.9 1.9 7.6 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 5.6 7.3 6.5 69.7 59.4 47.8 1.5 3.0 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------