***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2012.-12.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.9 51.1 53.5 36.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 1.6 7.0 5.8 56.2 53.3 38.2 2.1 4.7 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 1.6 10.9 5.9 59.4 56.0 37.7 0.9 5.4 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 3.3 13.0 6.7 62.7 62.1 38.9 3.1 10.0 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 3.0 13.6 7.1 66.0 63.7 43.4 0.4 8.6 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 3.1 13.1 9.5 72.2 61.0 38.4 2.7 8.4 16.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 1.8 4.6 5.6 52.3 53.5 40.8 1.9 4.5 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 7.1 20.6 7.2 67.6 61.3 43.5 12.0 17.8 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 3.1 13.9 6.5 58.2 58.7 37.4 4.8 9.8 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 4.7 15.0 7.8 64.0 60.3 40.7 6.8 14.0 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 4.5 18.3 6.1 63.1 63.4 43.6 4.7 12.4 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 3.8 14.9 5.6 67.7 64.8 44.4 2.3 9.7 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.3 7.8 6.9 67.2 63.6 41.2 1.6 5.3 9.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 3.3 12.4 7.8 64.2 57.6 37.4 4.9 9.5 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 2.9 14.6 4.9 54.3 62.2 38.9 3.3 7.7 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.3 12.7 6.7 65.8 62.7 40.9 2.4 8.5 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 2.9 7.1 5.3 53.9 49.7 39.6 2.4 7.2 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 4.4 13.1 9.7 69.2 56.2 38.3 5.6 10.9 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 1.4 7.0 5.8 58.2 54.3 37.4 1.9 4.7 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 3.7 11.7 10.5 73.9 56.6 40.3 5.5 10.4 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 3.0 11.1 5.3 55.3 58.7 37.7 5.7 8.6 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 3.6 11.1 6.3 63.1 55.1 40.4 3.6 8.8 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 1.8 12.3 5.9 60.3 57.9 37.6 1.9 5.9 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 4.3 15.1 7.8 62.6 52.9 36.3 5.1 12.9 20.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 3.1 13.4 6.3 57.9 57.5 38.1 2.5 8.8 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 2.5 9.9 5.0 61.2 63.2 41.3 2.2 7.4 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 2.3 6.8 5.6 49.9 50.5 36.3 3.2 6.7 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 1.6 7.3 6.1 59.4 61.0 40.4 0.8 4.4 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 8.0 18.1 9.8 69.4 53.9 38.4 7.3 17.5 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 1.6 6.6 6.0 57.8 55.1 38.6 2.2 5.6 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------