***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2012.-05.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 0.0 9.3 88.2 65.1 53.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 17.3 15.5 7.0 63.3 57.1 43.1 3.3 14.4 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 9.2 15.3 8.9 77.4 67.3 55.9 1.7 6.7 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 9.9 7.6 8.3 74.3 56.4 47.1 1.5 6.8 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 9.0 10.8 7.5 67.0 58.2 48.7 1.6 6.4 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.5 10.7 89.1 60.4 50.3 1.9 6.6 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 12.9 22.0 10.2 95.8 68.8 57.6 0.7 10.9 21.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 12.3 9.1 6.2 46.5 51.9 41.4 1.7 7.3 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.2 8.6 7.0 55.1 54.4 43.5 1.4 7.3 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 13.6 11.7 7.0 49.6 53.6 43.1 3.4 10.6 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.8 5.0 5.8 53.5 55.0 44.9 0.3 3.0 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.7 5.4 5.3 50.7 54.8 43.4 0.4 4.0 11.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 7.3 5.0 6.6 61.4 53.1 45.4 1.1 4.6 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 1.3 1.3 6.1 40.9 42.6 35.0 0.5 3.8 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.8 4.7 7.8 85.3 62.0 53.6 0.0 2.4 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 7.7 6.8 6.4 61.3 53.2 45.3 2.3 6.5 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 11.8 7.6 6.7 59.7 53.6 40.1 2.3 6.7 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 3.6 5.9 6.3 39.2 42.4 37.0 2.2 7.6 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.9 13.8 6.3 53.6 55.2 40.5 1.5 8.0 18.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.5 7.0 5.6 36.0 39.3 33.8 4.6 9.7 14.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.6 15.7 8.3 72.2 62.6 49.1 0.3 3.5 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 2.4 5.7 6.6 54.9 52.6 40.4 1.7 5.5 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 1.4 3.8 6.3 49.5 52.6 40.3 0.4 3.0 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.2 9.3 6.5 43.8 48.8 39.7 2.3 9.4 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.3 11.1 9.3 80.8 59.0 47.1 0.3 4.1 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.8 6.9 68.2 59.3 46.7 1.7 7.7 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 7.2 12.2 9.7 83.9 60.2 48.4 0.8 2.8 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 6.8 7.1 8.1 80.7 59.7 51.9 0.4 4.8 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 6.9 4.1 5.7 35.2 37.7 33.0 3.8 15.3 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 7.3 10.6 9.1 84.4 64.7 54.1 1.6 4.2 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------