***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2012.-26.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 9999.0 0.0 29.1 0.8 67.4 64.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 30.0 30.2 29.4 1.0 68.8 66.5 28.2 28.9 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 30.1 30.4 29.5 1.2 70.8 68.5 27.9 29.0 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 24.0 24.4 28.3 1.2 75.5 70.9 21.5 22.6 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 31.1 31.8 28.2 1.2 75.7 70.6 28.6 29.7 31.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 30.2 31.1 26.8 2.1 88.7 82.2 27.3 28.5 30.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 29.2 29.4 29.0 0.7 67.5 63.0 27.9 29.0 29.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 19.2 19.7 26.9 1.8 83.6 77.5 16.7 17.6 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 30.5 31.1 28.5 1.3 74.5 70.8 28.3 28.8 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 30.6 31.6 27.3 1.6 81.5 75.4 27.9 28.5 30.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 30.7 31.6 28.2 1.7 81.4 76.5 28.3 29.2 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 30.4 31.1 28.1 1.9 85.0 78.7 27.6 28.5 29.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 31.7 32.3 28.0 2.1 87.9 80.4 28.4 29.9 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 30.1 31.2 28.5 2.0 85.9 79.3 27.7 28.8 29.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 31.5 32.1 29.5 1.5 83.2 76.5 29.2 30.0 30.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 32.1 33.2 28.3 1.9 85.6 78.9 29.0 30.5 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 29.4 29.9 29.1 1.2 74.9 69.9 27.4 28.4 29.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 29.5 30.4 26.6 1.9 84.6 78.0 26.9 27.9 29.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 29.6 29.8 29.8 1.4 75.1 71.8 27.9 28.7 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 25.8 26.6 24.7 1.8 84.2 77.9 22.8 24.0 25.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 30.2 30.7 29.0 1.0 69.4 66.1 28.2 29.0 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 29.9 30.6 29.5 1.6 81.3 75.1 28.1 28.6 29.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 30.0 30.8 30.0 2.0 84.9 78.6 27.7 28.9 29.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 30.1 30.8 28.3 1.8 83.5 77.9 27.5 28.5 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 30.4 30.8 28.1 1.0 68.8 67.4 28.3 29.3 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 31.1 31.6 28.0 1.9 83.4 79.1 27.9 29.7 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 29.7 30.2 28.4 0.9 68.7 65.5 27.9 28.6 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 31.3 31.9 29.0 1.5 80.7 74.9 29.0 30.0 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 25.2 25.8 25.7 1.9 87.1 78.8 21.9 23.5 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 29.3 29.9 29.4 0.9 67.3 64.7 27.8 29.0 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------